Mike Pouraryan
OV Iran Watch (6/4/2010)
:
The Greatest Show on Earth
Today is the 21st Anniversary of the death of the Founder of the Islamic Republic. Remembrances have been held throughout Iran and the World. I have been monitoring Iran's National State Broadcaster. The one that really caught my eye was Hassan Nassrallah's speech, whereby he heaped praise on Khomeini and his contribution to Islam. There was, of course, another speech by idiotnejad who reminded the World that Khomeini belonged to the World. I am not sure if the World really wants that gift.
Moving on to the real world, Idiotnejad has some real challenges on his hands. It will be one year since his mentor and chief backer, Khameini, pulled a Bush v. Gore on the people of Iran and saw to it that the so-called conservative faction within the regime became prevalent. That faction has meant the continued ascendency of the Revolutionary Guards in all aspects of the Iranian Economy. I would argue that there have been some signficant leaps in development. I have written about Iran's Space Program and the recent report about the launch of the first of a number of ships to join Iran's Merchant Marine Fleet. This has also been the year that saw the launch of the first domestically produced Frigate that joined Iran's Navy Fleet earlier in the year.
There are some real battles looming. Mosavi and Karoubi applied for a permit to march on the anniversary of Khomeini's death. They were denied, of course. They have been marginalized and have resorted to facebook, twitter and youtube to keep their struggle alive. I continue to find Rafsanjani to be the pivotal player. He, of course, has been marginalized too. The Khameini faction continues to be the dominant faction. But, the looming subsidy cuts will present a strong challenge. There are some who believe that the Government will be able to weather the storm. I view the cut in subisides to help the down and out in Iran with things like Gas as unsustainable. Although the sanctions regime is continuing to gain traction, to me the only thing that would ultimately bring this clique down is the Economy. As Bill Clinton taught us in 1992, it is the Economy Stupid. The Government seems to realize it. What I find puzzling is the Government's move to sell Euros and Buy Dollars. This does go contrary to the Government's stated policy to force the world to accept an alternative to the world's only viable current reserve currency. But, the Euro's performance lately has been less than stellar. I view it as quite prudent. If I were in a position to make the decision, I would diversify and invest in Yuan and the Lonnie (the Canadian Dollar). That makes more sense.
As the Iranian Government tries to "rejig" the economy to be ready to live through the sanctions, Freedom of Speech and Expression continues to ellude Iranians. But, it continues to be the Greatest Show on Earth!!!!
Moving on to the real world, Idiotnejad has some real challenges on his hands. It will be one year since his mentor and chief backer, Khameini, pulled a Bush v. Gore on the people of Iran and saw to it that the so-called conservative faction within the regime became prevalent. That faction has meant the continued ascendency of the Revolutionary Guards in all aspects of the Iranian Economy. I would argue that there have been some signficant leaps in development. I have written about Iran's Space Program and the recent report about the launch of the first of a number of ships to join Iran's Merchant Marine Fleet. This has also been the year that saw the launch of the first domestically produced Frigate that joined Iran's Navy Fleet earlier in the year.
There are some real battles looming. Mosavi and Karoubi applied for a permit to march on the anniversary of Khomeini's death. They were denied, of course. They have been marginalized and have resorted to facebook, twitter and youtube to keep their struggle alive. I continue to find Rafsanjani to be the pivotal player. He, of course, has been marginalized too. The Khameini faction continues to be the dominant faction. But, the looming subsidy cuts will present a strong challenge. There are some who believe that the Government will be able to weather the storm. I view the cut in subisides to help the down and out in Iran with things like Gas as unsustainable. Although the sanctions regime is continuing to gain traction, to me the only thing that would ultimately bring this clique down is the Economy. As Bill Clinton taught us in 1992, it is the Economy Stupid. The Government seems to realize it. What I find puzzling is the Government's move to sell Euros and Buy Dollars. This does go contrary to the Government's stated policy to force the world to accept an alternative to the world's only viable current reserve currency. But, the Euro's performance lately has been less than stellar. I view it as quite prudent. If I were in a position to make the decision, I would diversify and invest in Yuan and the Lonnie (the Canadian Dollar). That makes more sense.
As the Iranian Government tries to "rejig" the economy to be ready to live through the sanctions, Freedom of Speech and Expression continues to ellude Iranians. But, it continues to be the Greatest Show on Earth!!!!
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