I caught a glimpse of a news conference by the Heritage Foundation's Michael Franc. He is the Government Relations VP for the Foundation. I am well aware of some of the support the Heritage Foundation receives. However, I have been of the view of that any idea that would help provide a roadmap is absolutely crucial to be looked at. I would be analyzing the report annouced by Heritage and providing guidance on it as part of OV's Election Watch Series over the ensuing weeks.
I welcome the Heritage Report because it is how things should be. There was one thing that Michael Franc also noted that I also agree with: incremental change is simply not acceptable. There needs to be the courage to truly work to transform for the greater good.
It is now officially the day after the Election in California. I served as an Election Coordinator for my local County. It is always a privilege and a pleasure to see Democracy in Action and to be witness and part of history. For me, it was also especially fun because my son joined me in the early set up process so that he can understand and realize Democracy in Action. I was extremely grateful for it.
The vote count is continuing. However, the Republican and Democratic Nominees are known: Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman. As I have written before, Meg Whitman and Steve Poisner tried to outdo themselves in telling the State who was more conservative than the other. Meg Whitman came out swinging about old time politics, about how things are to change and how she was going to ride into Sacramento on her white horse trying to save the State Pension System, the Education System, etc. etc. etc. As for Jerry Brown, he reminded the State that he's been around and was at the forefront of technological innovation before Meg Whitman could spell computers.
So far, Meg Whitman has been all fluff and has spent 80 Million creating the slickest of ads both on TV and online. Jerry Brown, on the other hand, has been running pretty much a stealth campaign. As the Republicans tore each other apart, Jerry Brown kept mum. Now the real battle begins. Both candidates need to check out a recent article by Dan Walters noting that the real problem lies in California again not having a budget. What this means, again, is another round of IOU's. This is quite a legacy for the current Governor to leave to the future Governor.
The One Stop Center is a wonderful, yet at the same time terrifying place. One hopes never to have to engage the services of such a center. Yet, many have had to turn to that center in order to try and find an opportunity to land on their feet. As I have written before, the resources are terrific, the staff is fabulous and they try very, very hard to be accomodating and supportive of people going through the calamity as they are.
I was at a workshop earlier in the week trying to see what can be done to get further assistance. The statistics being thrown around by the staff about the number of people being serviced was truly scary. WIA case workers have over 100 clients that they work with trying to get them situated in jobs. There is success. But, it is taking more time. I have had a chance to meet folks who have been pounding the pavement for over a year now to no avail. One such person spends his time volunteering at the local networking club and facilitates the dissemenation of information. How such people continue to perserve in spite of all the odds is very inspiring. But, there is of course all those promises of quick rich schemes. I was laughing at a recent story in the Orange County Register about opportunites on the internet. The claim was that you could get going on making 8,000 a month working two hours a day. Who wouldn't want that job? There was many such advertising on late night informercials as well that seems to have gone away now. They do still pop on on websites periodically--but that's about it
California continues to march to the edge of the abyss. The statistics I have seen from Pew Resarch scares the daylight out of me. California's current budget deficit as a percentage of the general fund is estimated to be at 49.3% of the general fund. The numbers I have seen are at 21 Billion Dollars according to a report on PublicCEO.com. It is just as bad in Nevada, which I just visited. It is estimated to be at 37.8 Percent of the general fund.
I have always believed that California is a leading indicator of what is going on in the Country as a whole. Although I think that California will be back, it will be quite a while. An indication of the steep climb California has is what happened with the University of California System. The UC trustees just approved a 32 percent tuition hike for students along with some massive budget cuts. With the steep cuts, I see these folks cutting the legs from under future development. I see the continued evolution to be such that Education may end up belonging to the rich and the well-off. Some may not think Education to be a Civil Right, but it seems to me that if there is anything that would help guarantee a reasonable future is Education. My own local school district is dealing with a 25 Million Dollar deficit. The School Board has decided to balance this budget by going after teacher salaries and pensions
Workers continue to be worried as reports of layoffs and missed earnings keep coming. One such law in California to at least help mitigate the shock is the California Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act. The so-called WARN ACT requires certain employers to give affected employees at least 60 days advance written notice of an intended plant closing or mass layoff. 147 companies will either have a mass layoff or an outright plant closing during this month alone. For instance, in January 2009, a major regional hospital in Orange County California filed to shut down with some 500 employees. Things continue to move in the wrong direction.
As for the sickly auto industry, I reported on the drastic measures being taken by Chrysler to pare its' dealer network. When the folks are not buying the cars, there is no reason to support such a extensive network. My initial estimate of the number of jobs lost was apparently way understated. The estimated job losses are slated to be around 38,000 people. GM is also right behind Chrysler. They are cancelling 1100 dealer contracts. The National Automotive Dealers Association is politically connected. After the dust is settled, only the major players (Penske, AutoNation) will survive. All others will fall by the wayside
The numbers that came out on Friday on the U.S. Unemployment numbers were shocking. It went up "officially" to 8.25%. But, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, it did not include, "...About 2.1 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in March, 754,000 more than a year earlier. These individ-
uals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 685,000 discouraged workers in March, up by 284,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities."
(Source: Really]Really Long Link retrieved April 4, 2009
The World's top 20 countries have desended upon London. London has braced itself for anarchy. Anyone who does not understand the anxiety felt by the people of the world seems to be living in fantasyland
I wrote about the profound concerns about the California Budget. I wanted to assess how the new stimulus plan will help California. California, for instance, is slated to receive around 11 Billion in Educational Funding alone. Funds are starting to be distributed. I am particuarly keen to understand how the 11 Billion Dollars slated for California is going to trickle down to the local level.
Right now, the Capistrano Unified School District in Orange County, California is faced with a 38 Million Dollar Deficit. They are slated to make substantial cuts. According to the California Teachers Association, Twenty Six Thousand Teachers were slated to receive pink slips. As California has already launched its' companion website, available at: http://www.recovery.ca.gov/, I will be looking into the 11 billion dollars and how it is going to be spent
The debate on what to do about how to jumpstart the US Economy rages on. I personally have received appeals from both Senator McCain's new CountryFirst PAC and President Obama's Organizing for America Organization. The roundtable held earlier between four leading lights of the U.S. Congress on NBC's Meet the Press underscores this divide.
As the debate continues, teachers, fire fighters and cops are on the chopping block. States are in dire straits. California continues to operate without a budget.
In my almost daily columns/comments on the Economy, I had thought about the calamity as a Tsunami. With a Tsunami, there is at least a chance to see Sunshine. However, I think the better term for it is a Winter Storm. I continue to wonder when we will see sunshine.
On Wednesday, the bleeding continued. Cisco Systems, the leading network gear maker, missed the numbers. Alcatel-Lucent continued its' downward slide which has been on-going for a number of years. Disney missed then it came out with its numbers and annouced jobs cuts totaling some 400 workers at the ABC unit. Earlier in the week, Electronic Arts annouced a job cut and delay in new games
The new month continues the bad news we have been subjected to since mid-2008. Right now, Ryannair has posted a loss of 130 Million Dollars for the final 3 months of 2008. Ryannair is oen of the leading budget airlines in Europe, based in Ireland. Going around the world to China, China has just come out with a report noting that some 20 million Chinese workers no longer have jobs to go back to. According to the statistics reported, this represents 15% of the workforce.
As the flow of red ink and bad news continues, we have the give and take in Washington. There is at least consesus that something has to be done. But, states and local governments in the United States continue to suffer. The Governor and the Legislature are continuing their game of political football. This is the California Governor's Take on this
The world is right now fascinated with Davos. The rich, the famous and the powerful are all there in paradise talking about the world and all the problems. There is enough being said by all pundits which will speak for itself on Davos. But, two key things occured which I wanted to note:
1) Turkey's Prime Minister Edrogan stormed out of a discussion with Shimon Peres during discusisons on Gaza. Edrogan was given a minute by David Ignathius of the Washington Post to rebute a lengthy comment by Shimon Peres. I think the gesture by Mr. Edrogan must be taken seriously by Israel. It shows the frustration with Israel and the fact that as Amr Mousa said, Israel "does not listen". I was quite disappointed by David Ignathius when he did not grant equal time during the discussions. It seems to me that Dinner could have waited
Mike Pouraryan
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