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The man has been busy....
Iran just adopted a new budget. The new budget has finally cut basic subsidies. Instead, it will be doing cash payouts. They took their queue from the block grant scheme that was done during the Reagan Adminstration in the United States. I find that a disturbing development because of the continued calamity within the Iranian Economy.
The Chief of the Coup Government (what the Green Movement calls Idiotnejad) has been quite busy. He just inaugurated a new double-decker highway in the City of Isfahan. He also has been criss-crossing the country again handing out goodies to all and has been quite hyperactive.
There is not much that will happen over the next three weeks. Iran will be shut down and everyone will be on the two week holiday starting on Saturday. As The Iranian New Year begins on Saturday, Iran will need to deal with some profound economic and political challenges. I will be writing about it throughout the new Iranian New Year.
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Never a Dull Moment....
Because of the importance Iran plays in Regional and World Politics, I have decided to elevate the periodic write-ups I do on Iran and launch OV Iran Watch to share insights about Iran and the challenges that the Country faces.
Despite all the efforts to potray an aura of normalcy, The Government of Iran continues to run scared. They have been busy continuing the show trials and executions. They have been also busy releasing folks. But, these so-called releases have been done with hefty bails. This is while Idiotnejad takes a flight out to Kabul to see the useless Karzai.
What I was enraged about was the report that came out about the Poet Simin Behbahani being detained at Tehran Airport and her passport being taken away as he was getting ready to go to Paris. Ms. Behbahani is Iran's leading contemporary Poet and is 82 years old. This is just one example of the cold war against the intelligensia within the Country. Shirin Ebadi, though, is out of the Country and talked with Democracy Now's Amy Goodman about what is really going on:
I welcomed her unequivocal statement about the fate of the American hikers that continue to be detained by the regime charged with espionage. The rule of law has completely been disregarded by the regime in its' quest to perpetuate its power. Shirin Ebadi underscored this very fact.
I have written and reitrated the continued subtle psychological cold war against the oppostion Green Movement. The Green Movement continues its' digital opposition campaign through facebook. But, the pressure is there and goes on nonstop. I was laughing out loud when I read about an interview by an Iranian Presidential Staffer about a so-called Velvet Revolution which was planned out by the opposition. This Staffer, who is supposedly the head of the Iranian Presidency Research and Analysis Service, was adamant that he had proof of this fact. Yaah right!!!!
Although Iran's self-sufficiency in Military Hardware is commendable, bombs and missiles do not equate to jobs. The aspirations of the people remains unfulfilled. The World continues to smart up and take things away continually from Iran. Vitol, one of the leading energy trading outfits in the world, has stopped dealing in supplying Iran with refined gasoline. This is probably the only way that Iran will be forced to make the necessary changes that will possibly live up to lts' original ideals that led to the 1979 Revolution in the first place. I have to wonder whether that is wishful thinking or not.
Iraqis went to the Poll. There was violence and some 35 people lost their lives. But the insurgents did not succeed. The reports I have seen show that the elections went well, was well organized and reasonably fair. It shows that the people are speaking with one voice--the need to change. Now the real work begins.
Iraq is a country that is frankly broken in many ways. People can't find jobs. The infrastructure is non-existent. More importantly, the Political leadership is mostly interested in perpetuating its own power structure than actually working to overcome and rebuild. Yet, I believe that the Iraqi People must be congratulated to have turned out in such force to speak for change.
But, there is also one more profound hotspot that should be of concern. George Mitchell is back in the Middle East to start indirect talks. My reaction was simply this: "whatever". The West Bank seems to have made a nascent recovery since 2007. But, land grabs continue. The Israeli Prime Minister has been apparently targeting Muslim Holy Sites. Illegal Settlements are continuing with token Israeli response. What is clear is that the Palestinians have done everything they can according to the roadmap. They have rebuilt institutions, stamped out corruption, began a concerted effort to rebuild their economy and are making progress. Joe Klein talked about in a recent Time Magazine Column he wrote when he was in the Middle East.
There is also a sublte shift by Hamas. Fawaz Gerges, one of the Pre-Eminent Middle East Scholars, has writen on the transformation onf Hamas in a recent edition of the Nation Magazine. He lays out how Hamas has continued to change its stance as it has contineud to rule Gaza. Khaled Mashal has said that that there is an entity called Israel. The Israeli Right and the Amen Crowd in the United States seem to not accept and understand that. Israel's current governing coaliton rejects a Palestinian State despite all the pronoucements that have been made since 1967. What is bothersome is that Israel wants International law to be applied to Iran--yet it exempts itself by virtue of its actions.
As Iraq reached a milestone, there is more challenges to come. The challenge for Iraq is whether the political elite of the country will have the courage to go beyond their narrow self-interest and work for the country and not take five months to form a government. The people of Iraq cannot afford any more disappointments. As for the Israeli-Palestinian dispute, I wish Senator Mitchell success. So far, it has been a utter failure. I have to wonder what will be achieved with this "indirect" approach after all the direct approaches so far. I also wonder what is preventing the United States from putting its' foot down and basically tell Israel that it has to change its ways. Senator Mitchell floated the idea of potentially taking away Israel's financial guarantee if Israel balked at making peace. He was crucified. What are choice is there left?
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Not Surprised @ all....
The struggle for Iran took a very interesting turn on Thursday. I caught a glimpse of CNN and as I was watching the coverage of the carnage in Austin by the madman, Rick Sanchez announced that the IAEA was about to report out that Iran had moved towards developing nuclear fuel for the bomb. Iran's silence was broken when Iran's IAEA Rep came out saying that the new Director-General of the IAEA reitrated the agency's understanding of Iran's peaceful intentions.
I find this a worrisome development indeed. I am not surprised. The Middle East going nuclear should be of profound concern. The genie is indeed out of the bottle. The question is whether this genie can be controlled or not. I am not sure whether sanctions will work either. I reviewed the Anti Defamation League's call for Iran's Oil to be boycotted. What the world needs to realize is that Iran was under severe constraints, yet managed to fight a war with Iraq while the people were minimally impacted. This was during the time Mousavi was Prime Minister. The problem was that grown-ups were running Iran then. Although they were brutal grown-ups--at least they were grown-ups. They were not in it for money or fame. The current gang in charge clearly is
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The Struggle Will Continue
Cyberspace has been abuzz about the day after. I have been continuing to assess what the regime did to muzzle dissent. They had a strong show of force and used every trick of the book to prevent people from exercising their Democratic rights
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When will they realize that they're on the wrong Path....
The official celebrations have begun. This is as the Opposition has called for massive protests. I am monitoring Al Jazeera and there was just a report of clashes on Sadeghi Square. Mehdi Karoubi one of the key opposition leaders was due to arrive there.
As this was going on, the regime had restricted Internet Access and detained opposition activitists. Yesterday's New York Times reported that the wife and children of a jailed journalist were summoned to the Revolutionary Court for questioning. It was simply unbelievable. Google has been reporting that access to GMAIL was restricted. The opposition, though, was as ready as it could be. The main internal opposition site for the Green Movement had already sent out at least one proxy server for access to all a day before. I saw it and posted it to my own facebook account to help spread the word
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Will The Powers-To-Be Listen....
Iran's recent moves to enrich uranium is now again in the news. Although I understand the concerns by the United States and the International Community, some of the hype is frankly mis guided and at times, provocative.
The current gang running Iran is not to be trusted. I eagerly await Feburary 11 to asess what the Green Movement is going to do. But, what I worry about is the increased military posturing and the rhetoric that may present challenges yet unimaginable. It is interesting how the two nations on the forefront of actions against Iran are the United States and Israel. It was the United States who is the only country in the world to have detonated a Bomb. Israel is the only country in the Middle East who actually possess nuclear weapons. Yet, they somehow want to prevent others from acquiring the technology. What they fail to undestand is that Iran has acquired the technology and they have to somehow figure out how to live with it
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The People Will not Stay Silent....
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A sign of desparation!??!
Although I have been focused on closing out the year, I interrupted my vacation to report on Iran's latest developments. The world was witness to the latest propaganda offensive by the leading personalities of the regime. Ahmadinejad came out and denoucned the protests. Larijani, the Parliamentary Speaker, demanded justice. Others called for Mousavi's head. Adding to this facade, Government Workers were given a day off and apparently $ 150 Dollars to turn out en masse to "support" the regime. I almost fell out of my chair in laughter when I read all the tributes to the marches and how they punched the world in the mouth with their solidarity. The reality is quite different
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As Only JibJab Can Say It!!
As I continue to finish off 2009 and gear up for 2010, I just ran across JibJab's take on this very, very tough year:
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Is this the trigger or not?
Iran arose again during Ashora. Ashora is the day Shias remember the martrydom of Imam Hussein the Prophet Mohammad's Grandson. The sights I saw was heartening and the bravery I saw took my breath away
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Iranian State Media is reporting the death of Iran's Senior Dissident Cleric, Grand Ayatollah Montazeri. He was an interesting figure and worked to be a voice of reason as the nature of Iran's Government changed. He paid a heavy price for his dissident views. I wonder what will happen now especially to the dissident movement that looked to him for inspiration and guidance.
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Is this a turning point...hardly?!??!?
Today is another anniversary. It is the 30th anniversary of the takeover of the U.S. Embassy by the so-called Iranian Students with the support of the Government of Iran. As I am thinking about this, I am listening to an BBC Interview with Bary Rosen recounting the agony he went through during the 444 days they endured.
As this tragedy was recounted, I remembered that day too. I remembered when the Americans were marched out of the Embassy, blindfolded. How these poor souls became pawns in a Government who was paranoid for its own survival was One of the things I think Iran came to terms with was how those who did came to regret what they did. It took a lot of courage for Mohammad Khatami, the former President, to come out and say this. But, this is a day that is still a national day in Iran today. But, this is also a day that the key internal opposition leaders, Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi, have called upon their supporters to come out to again to protest. But, the regime's henchmen have made it clear that they would meet this with brute force
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What will the future hold?
There is never a dull moment in Iran. I was gratified to see that Maziar Bahai, the Newsweek Correspodent, was released on 300,000 Dollar bail. However, I was shocked when I reviewed the reports on the death of Six Top Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders in the South of the country as reported by Al Jazeera earlier
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Is this a fact? or is it fiction?
The meetings in Geneva yesterday apparently got a committment from Iran to get a visit from the IAEA Director-General, Dr. El-Barady to Iran's newest enrichment plant near Qum plus a committment to supposedly scale back the plant at Natanz. I was surprised to see these committments in light of all that has been going on.
Although I consider it a good day, more work remains to be done. The World accepts this. The challenge for Iran is to manifest this into a way to make the Israelis look like idiots by coming to an actual understanding on the right of Iran to have access to Nuclear Energy. There seems to be a realization by Khameini of this fact. I wonder if I am too optimistic in this regard or not
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September 28th 2009 00:58
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Reflections On The On-Going Struggle
Things in Iran continue to go from bad to worst. In the midst of the International Uproar I commented on earlier, Iran conducted missile tests on the latest range of mid-range missiles. In addition, it was announced that Iran would be conducting war games dubbed the Great Prophet IV that would showcase Iran's latest warfare capabilities.
As the saber-rattling goes on, there is of course the little matter of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp's continued influence in the economy. Earlier today, an investment outlet of the Gurad bought 51% of Iran's Telecommunication Organization for some 8 Billion US Dollars in about thirty minutes. This is the same organization that played a central role in the harsh crackdown after the elections which has exposed the schism in the Iranian Ruling establishment that appears to be growing wider by the hour
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September 27th 2009 17:26
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Truly Never a Dull Moment!!!!
Iran has been busy yet again. Between a new Uranium Enrichment Plant and new military manuevours, it is clear that Iran is trying to assert its' military might. The talks coming up on October 1 is going to be pivotal. What is bothersome is how Iran seems to be forgetting what is important vs. what is imperative. The U.S. seemed to have known before Iran voluntarily notified the IAEA. The Iranian Political leadership's crediblity is non-existent. I would love to be a fly on the wall to see what Saeed Jalili, Iran's Point man on the nuclear negotations, will do to talk Iran out of this latest fiasco.
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Never a Dull Moment.....
Well, today is the day the Parliament (Majlis) is debating Idiotnejad's choice to be in the Government. Although the regime's moutpiece, IRNA, was trying to put a positive spin on the approvals, it is bound to be quite interesting. I have written on it before. It will be interesting to see who will be rejected. Idiotnjead did plead for unity in his speech before parliament. Let's see who heeds the call.
Now, there is another more disturbing development that concerns me. Idiotnjead came out calling for the leaders of the protest movement (namely Karoubi, Mousavi & Khatami) to be arrested and prosecuted. I see this as another sign of desparation. I see this as a sign of a man who is boxed in on all sides. The opposition is having a tough time right now. But, it clearly appears that subtle ways to continue the struggle continues on. I find another development extremely hopeful. I have reviewed comments from the head of the State Broadcaster noting that there has been a 60% drop in viewership since the protests. The people are to be commended for realizing the trash being pushed out by the State Broadcaster. This can truly be a sign of things to come
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Truly Never a Dull Moment!!!
It has been a very busy week-end. There is of course Burma and the fact that Jim Webb got to see the Pro-Democracy Leader and the Chief Thug who runs Burma today. There is the burning debate over healthcare that dominated the airwaves over the week-end on U.S Sunday Talk Show Circuit. There was of course Afghanistan and the upcoming election. And last, but no tleast, there is of course Iran.
Here was a sampling of the debate over healthcare
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Truly Never a Dull Moment!!!
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If only he listens to what Shahrodi Said....
I have just been seeing the live broadcasts of Iran's State Television of the swearing-in ceremony for the President at the Majlis (Parliament). Ahmadinejad has just taken the oath of Office for his new term as the President of the Country after remarks by Larijani, the Speaker and Shahroudi, the head of the Judiciary. What was striking was that leading members of the opposition were not there.
As a prelude, I did find it interesting that Robert Gibbs, President Obama's Spokesman noted that Ahmadinejad is the elected President of the country. This interesting pronoucement should shut up those elements of the Iranian version of the neo-cons who blamed the internal unrest on foreign influence. The opposition continues to be as vibrant as ever. The question is what they would do now
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Who do they think they're fooling?
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Never a Dull Moment.....
Over the last few days, things have continued to be just as vibrant. First of, there has been the Iraqi incursion into Camp Ashraf. Camp Ashraf is the headquarters of the People's Mujahedeen and the political arm, the National Council Resistance of Iran. They were initially formed in 1965 to fight the Shah and then turned against the Islamic System and fled to Iraq. They took up arms and supported Saddam during the war with Iran. Throughout the 90's, they were active in formenting attacks and were at the forefront of providing intelligence on Iran's Nuclear Activities to the West. The U.S. considers them terrorists and disarmed them in 2003
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The Green Wave Is Not Dead!!!
Throughout the past weeks, I have continued to wonder about what Rafsanjani would do. He is among the most influential and powerful men in the Iranian Political establishment. He is a former President, former Speaker of Parliament, former Deputy Commander of the Armed Forces and has been one of the key players of the Revolution. He now Chairs the Expediency Council and the Assembly of Experts, two pivotal institutions in the Iranian Political Establishment. Khameini himself acknowledged the central role Rafsanjani has played during the course of the revolution over the past thirty years and touted his 50 year friendship and political association with him when he spoke at his famous speech at Friday prayers. So, what Mr. Rafsanjani says and does matters in Iranian politics today. That's way Friday July 17, 2009 was a pivotal day.
Rafsanjani spoke at Friday Prayers yesterday. As Friday came closer, there was a vibrant activity on Facebook. Mr. Mousavi, Mr. Karoubi and Mr. Khatami's facebook pages were constantly providing updates on the Friday prayers, urging all to bear the Green Wave Symbol that became the symbol of the campaign. Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi were there. Yet, the mouthepieces of the regime were silent. They did report it, but one had to look really hard to see what the regime had to say. It was broadcast on State Radio. He called for the release of all prisoners, said that the people had lost their trust in the regime and things had to change. He noted that the People still had questions. For a man who has been at the forefront It took a lot for him to say this, after being silent for so long. Yet, the Intelligence Minister said at a news conference that the files of the folks under detention was "being finalized"--whatever that means
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Nearly Fell off my Chair....
Mr. Obama has been challenged by Idiotnejad to a "debate" to discuss the matters of the world. When I read his "challenge", I nearly fell off my chair in laughter. The only thing that is for him to do is to be ignored. Already, Iran is facing isolation on multiple fronts. He should begin by truly explaining what he has done. Economist's KAL has done a great job showing what the regime has done. What will he have to say to that
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No time to sit idly by, that's for sure!!!!
The struggle in Iran is very much evident in this image. Web 2.0 has been at the frontline of the struggle, whether it likes it or not. Although events in Iran have largely fallen off the attention span of the Mainstream Media, the struggle continues unabatted. Today, Iran's Armed Forces Chief of Staff came out swinging saying that the European Union was not qualified to participate in nuclear arms negotations because of their "meddling" in the elections. The Europeans, though, are in the midst of deliberations to potentialy withdraw their Ambassadors from Iran
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Not surprised at all......
Mr. Khameini seems to have consolidated his position, yet again. Furthermore, as the struggle with the election goes on, the key players in the Iranian Regime have been busy. The newly appointed President has been quite busy making speeches and acting as if everything is OK. The Iranian Presidency's Website has published the list of all the congratulatory messages, too. It is quite a list. He has also been apaprently making the rounds in the Holy City of Qum today and confered an honour on one of the Grand Ayatollahs. The payoffs are continuing apparently on a grand scale
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No one should be surprised!!!
Mousavi continues to defy the regime. The Friday Prayer Leader, A guy by the name of Khatami (which I understand is no relation to the Ex-President), came out for harsh sentences against the protesters. The Supreme National Security Council of Iran cautioned Mousavi to stop his objections to the elections. The newly appointed President came out to provide some "friendly" advise to Mr. Obama to stop "meddling". The guy who is the mouthpiece for the Guardian Council was emphathic in his pronoucements that this was the cleanest election ever. To top it all off, there is a new line peddled by the Iranian Ambassador to Mexico about Neda being killed by the CIA. If I did not know better, I think they would have had a sold out crowd at the Improv
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Will the Regime Get Away with it?
The regime has shown its' brutal side. What I called the "Burma Option" in fact did occur. All instruments of repression was employed and the opposition has been forced to withdraw.
Although the regime seems to have shot its' way to short-term survival, the fight for freedom and democracy is raging on facebook, What I've found striking was the clergy joining some of the demonstrations
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Will something happen soon?
There have been virtually no demonstrations since the disturbances on Saturday. What I feared did in fact happen. The Basij (the regime's goons) and the security forces saw to it that the protests are crushed. I reviewed Mr. Mousavi's latest statement where he urges everyone on with their protests about eight hours ago on Facebook.
Right now, I see a report on CNN stating that the Guardian Council has rejected complaints of voter irregularity. However, the statement from the spokesman for the Guardian Council says that they are ready to address specific complaints from Mr.Karoubi and Mr. Mousavi. I was laughing as I read the statement. The utter contempt and lack of regard for true process was really shown in how he made his statement to the press
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Not over by any means...
Iran's State TV reported within the past hour that 13 "terrorist" deaths. My reaction to that was this: yaaaaaaaaaaaah right!!! The BBC reporter has been kicked out. Mousavi's Website, Gholam News, has been hacked. The only means to get things out to the world is through Facebook. From what I have seen on Facebook, more massive civil disobdience protests are planned. Idiotnejad has also come out blasting the US and the UK with interference. The whole world knows how pathetic and lowlife the man is. But what was sad was the comments by Mottaki, Idiotnejad's Foreign Minister, when he said that there is no way there was any fraud. Mottaki seems to be living the fantasy planet his deranged bosses are.
There are three key developments that are extraordinary in what I regard as an extra ordinary week. First of, the Speaker of the Majlis (Parliament) has come out with a statement criticizing members of the Council of Guardians for taking a stance in favor of one candidate. The fact that this was reported by official state media is significant. I consider that huge because Larijani (the speaker) was sitting by idiotnejad's side as Khameini was speaking. One of the same members of the Council of Guardians has come out telling the world of the right to protest and the fact that the "regime" does not need to force Mousavi into submission. There is of course the fatwa (religious edict) of the dissident Grand Ayatollah Montazeri, when he came out and said that resisting the democratic aspirations of the people is against religious beliefts
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What will Khameini Say Now?
When I started Outsiderviews a year ago, little did I know that on its' one year anniversary, I will be again Witness to History. The opposition in Iran did not blink. The reason Mousavi and Karoubi did not go to the Guardian Council was because they understood that the decision was going to be a foregone conclusion. They understood that there is no turning back. Mousavi's declaration on being ready for Martrydom means that he has directly challenged the authority of the Rahbar (Supreme Leader). I find this signficant.
There are many soldiers in this fight. I salute all those who have taken up the cause to support this fight. I salute Embassies in Tehran who have agreed to take in the wounded. I salute Twitter, Facebook and Google. They are the new soldiers in the quest for Freedom and democracy. I salute those who have given their life for this cause. These brave souls should not be allowed to die in vain
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Will the Armed Forces Do the right thing?
The drama in Iran continues to unfold. As I wrote earlier, Khameini threw down the gauntlet when he spoke. I was frankly shocked as to how political his speech was. As I heard him speak, he very much violated the spirit of his own office, which is supposed to be above the fray. He truly seemed out of touch
The people's defiance is breathtaking. Mr. Mousavi's Facebook page had this youtube video posted to it earlier tonight
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We can't let the Iranian People Down!!!!.
One cannot help but be proud to see such outpouring of emotion at this push towards Democracy. All indications are that it just is not going to stop. I just finished reviewing Karoubi's call for a mass demonstration for Friday to converge about Tehran University. I also reviewed Mohsen Rezaii's admonitioni to the Minister of the Interior demanding exact election data which is yet to happen. Mousavi has called for massive demonstration tomorrow.
This is a regime that is clearly nervous. Barack Obama came out and was restrained. Yet the Swiss Ambassador was called in to protest US intereference. I wonder what the Government's reaction would have been if Barack Obama came out as Nicolas Sarkozy did or as Angela Merkel did. The Iranian Footballers have sported Mr. Moussavi's Campaign colors as well as a sign of solidarity. This is the scenes that BBC was able to show earlier today
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We should stop our vigliance
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Will the Genie be put back in the bottle?
The dust is yet to settle on the Iranian Elections. I am just floored by the arrogance of the man who got handed the Presidency yet again by the political establishment. In this exchange with Christian Amanpour, he does not answer the question and starts going on a tirade about a football match:
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....will things change?
Over the past 24 hours, Iran's leaders have been coming out to Congratulate the President. After Khameini came out , the other followed like sheep. Among the so-called leaders of the regime have been the head of the Judiciary and the Speaker of the Majlis. Rezaii, the other candidate, has also followed suit. Idiotnejad has also spoken, thanking the people for his victory. But, the people have responded by demonstrating on the streets. Mr. Moussavi's Facebook page has called upon the people to get out on their rooftops to chant, "Allah-o-Akbar" which means God is Great
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...Let's not lose hope, yet!!!
As I write this, the official results are being announced by the Ministry of the Interior. What has been reported by the Interior Ministry is quite remarkable. The Al Jazeera correspodent is reporting that the Incubment President has gotten over 24,000,000 Votes (some 64% of the vote). There are reports that The incumbent has even won in the City of Tabriz, Mr. Mousavi's Hometown. What is even more strange is that the results were announced as the voting continued to go on. I wonder what happened to all the votes of the Iranian ex-pats who voted in some 133 countries. But, there are still a few other steps that need to be taken before the "official" results are announced. So, this drama will play itself out for a while yet
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No Surprises Though.....
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Not Really Surprised....
Early returns have come in Iran. So far, the incumbent President is leading by a 2-1 margin. I am not really surprised. According to the figures released by Iranian Election Officials, 15 Million People have voted for the incumbent. If one adds up the Basij Milita and the Revolutionary Gurads, that accounts for almost 45-50% of the vote so far. There is over 60% of the votes that is yet to be counted. The whole world awaits.
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Change is Truly In the Air.....
In about two hours, the polls open in Iran in one of the most pivotal elections since the 1979 Revolution. I have been fascinated by how the whole country has been galvanized. As I have written before, the choices are stark. Some are still apathetic. But, I view this change as historic.
Ann Curry of NBC News was in Iran to do a special on NBC News' Dateline. I congratulate her on her reporting. This has been one of the most balanced and even handed reporting I have ever seen. It is such even-handed reporting that will help bridge the gap of mistrust
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...The Choices is Clear....
The official campaigning has concluded in Iran. The big day is tomorrow. Of course, Idiotnejad got the last word It will be quite an achievement if he wins because all the machinery of the State was on Idiotnejad's side. Just this past day, The State Media organization gave idiotnejad time to refute the supposed "fabrications" that his opponents talked about.
I believe that Moussavi will win because the people want change. They are tired of the political games. Whether in fact it happens remains to be seen.
Right now, Al Jazeera's Ali Reza Rounaghi is reporting live from Tehran. Candidates are doing all the last minute campaigning that they can. The entire country will go to the polls on Friday. It is high noon. Will we wake up to a new day in Iran or not when Saturday comes around? I wonder.
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Will it in fact happen?
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A Lot of Work Still Ahead....
As I continue to assess the aftermath of Mr. Obama's Speech, I was particuarly keen to find out the official reaction of the Iranian Government now that the speech was actually given. I have not seen any indication of an "official" response yet. The world hopefully realizes that Iran is in the midst of an election.
There were some crucial elements of the speech that should truly be noted as a change for Iran. There was an acknowledgement of the role the United States played in the overthrow of Dr. Mohammad Mossadeq in 1953. The CIA spent 700,000 Dollars to bring back the Shah. This is a historical fact and is not in dispute. Furthermore, the President went further by noting Iran's right to nuclear energy. This should also be appealing to the Iranian Government. But he did also note that Iran's record is not pristine either. The 1979 hostage crisis is one of the darkest chapters in Iranian history. Mr. Khatami did apologize for this and the so-called students who took over the embassy came out in the 90's to acknowledge the historical mistake. There is general consesus that this move helped to consolidate and preseve the Islamic Republic during its' most unstable time
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Not Surprised At all....
I have been assessing the reaction to Mr. Obama speech throughout the day. These are two images of people tuned in throughout the Muslim World (Source: The BBC):
A Muslim Family in India
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..and I thought I was going to be bored!!!
The elections in Iran are becoming as colorful as the elections in America. I realize that some may disagree, but the tone of the debate continues to fascinate me nonetheless.
During Friday prayers at Tehran University, the man leading the prayers talked about how candidates who were criticizing the present government were undermining the fabric of the Islamic Republic. To add insult to injury, a Majlis (Deputy) from the capital Tehran, noted that the leading opponent of the current President, Mr. Moussavi is not a Seyed. For those who do not know what that means, a Seyed is a direct decedant of the Prophet Mohammad and the implication that somehow Mr. Moussavi is not one but claims to be one means that he is misleading the public. One must also add Mr. Moussavi's overt campaign appearances with his wife--who is an intellectual in her own right
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What are they afraid of?
The threat of facebook being banned in Iran has proven true. The authorities have banned Facebook during the Presidential Election. This is in part due to an apparent fear the conservative establishment has against the so-called liberal/reformist wing of the political class in Iran. The leading candidate, Mir Hossein Moussavi, has a facebook page that boasts over 5,000 supporters when I checked it out an hour ago.
Despite my initial euphoria over the decision by the State Broadcaster to have a U.S.-Style Debate, I am beginning to see a clear effort to stack the deck for Ahmadinejad. Press TV is reporting that a site called Fararoo news that featured conservative critics of Ahmadinejad has been banned. Beyond the banning of the online initaitives by State Authorities, there is of course the role of the Leader of the Islamic Revolution. Despite his claims to be "neutral" and "above politics", he has in essence come out in support of Ahmadinejad. The lead in The Islamic Republic News Agency's Website for the past number of hours was Ahmadinejad. It featured his remarks on fighting back corruption. He claimed that he was fully prepared to name "names". I welcome it, because most of the political elite in Iran today are among the richest in both Iran--if not the world. I wonder how he would fare out
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Quite Extraordinary.....
The Four Muskeeters!!??!!??!
I was shocked when I read the actual approval by Iran's State Broadcaster of Television Debates between the four major Presidential Contenders: Ahmadinjead, Moussavi, Karoubi and Rezaii. Each of them have also been given equal air time to present their case to the Iranian People on why they think they are right for the job
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...it's getting exciting!!!
I have been assessing the State of the Elections so far. According to the Interior Ministry, some 475 people had registered to run for President. Most of them will probably be dismissed by the Guardian Council. But, the big four (Moussavi, Rezaii, Ahmadinjead & Karoubi) will probably pass the vetting process.
There are two developments that I find very, very interesting. The first one is that the State Broadcaster has proposed to air a debate of the major candidates. The Interior Ministry has approved it. In addition, Ahmadinejad's former Interior Minister has come out against him. During the interview as reported on PressTV, he notes that a number of leading clergy are already vying for Moussavi, the Former Prime Minister, to win the Presidency
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Now it's official...remembering what's important!!
The Iranian Elections: The Leading Contenders
On Thursday, all Presidential Contenders for the Iranian Presidency registered as candidates with Iran's Interior Ministry. The Interior Ministry has the responsiblity to manage the election process in Iran
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Not really surprised.....
Will He Ever Learn?
Idiotnejad sure made a splash with his so-called speech at the UN conference in Switerzland. He managed to antagonize the whole world in the process. . I am trying to understand why he decided to, when he could have easily sent his Foreign Minister. No other head of state or Government attended Durban II anyway
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A Blow to a Noble Goal....
I have seen reports that Iran has become the world's largest importer of Wheat. Iran had set out a goal to be self-sufficient in Wheat, the Country's staple crop. Part of the reason has been a nationwide drought. This is another example of the failure of idionjead's tenure. Yet, the entire machinery of the state is gearing up to support his expected re-election bid.
I view this election as quite pivotal. It will determine the direction of the country and the region for quite some time. The signs are pointing towards idiotnejad. Let's see whether the people can surprise the world.
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Will the People be Allowed to make their choice known?
Iran's Election is coming up. I have written here about the candidacy of Mir Hossein Mossavi, the Former Prime Minister who is vying to replace the current President. He held a press conference earlier this week in Tehran, where he vowed to end "extremism". I was also quite gratified when I saw his committment to pursue what he termed as "detente" with the west. He noted that, "..we have to make a lot of effort to gain the world's trust once again.". I find this a powerful statement from a pillar of the establishment who was a key figure during the War with Iraq. He is known as an honest and efficient manager who kept the country together during those trying years.
The unknown quantity here is the Supreme Leader Ali Khameini. I listened to his New Year Message in the City of Mashad, when he spoke out after Barack Obama's New Year Message. He said that he is only one man and has one vote and will note support any candidate. He said that he saw his role as supporting the Government of the Day. I hope that he would truly live up to this committment. Although Iranians are a proud nation with a rich history, they are also patient. If they were not patient, they would not put up with all that they have had to endure over the past thirty years
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Will Idiotnjead Survive?
There was a recent poll taken in Iran to assess how the major Presidential Candiddates fared in the upcoming elections. The current President polled at 36.8%, the former President Mohammad Khatami polled at 28.4%, the Former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mossavi polled at 11.8% and the former Parliamentary Speaker polled at less than 1%.
As I assessed this poll results (taken before the advent of the holidays and the traditional two weeks of vacation in Iran), I found it quite signifcant. If the moderate forces do in fact unite, they will present a profound challenge to idiotnejad. The current President has the power of incumbency and the entire state apparatus at his disposal. Yet, somehow, the people of Iran have a knack to pull off a rabbit out of a hat
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A Welcome Respite, perhaps?
The UK Prime Minister, Gordon Brown, is about to make a speech noting Iran's absolute right to develop nuclear energy. However, he would also underscore the fact Iran should not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons. This can be interpeted as a potential victory for Idiotnejad. The fact that nuclear power is on the ascendancy goes to the bigger picture of controlling climate change. I will be interested to see how Gordon Brown actually delivers the message. I welcome the change in tone. It is crucial for the future.
Mike Pouraryan
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