Because of the importance Iran plays in Regional and World Politics, I have decided to elevate the periodic write-ups I do on Iran and launch OV Iran Watch to share insights about Iran and the challenges that the Country faces.
Despite all the efforts to potray an aura of normalcy, The Government of Iran continues to run scared. They have been busy continuing the show trials and executions. They have been also busy releasing folks. But, these so-called releases have been done with hefty bails. This is while Idiotnejad takes a flight out to Kabul to see the useless Karzai.
What I was enraged about was the report that came out about the Poet Simin Behbahani being detained at Tehran Airport and her passport being taken away as he was getting ready to go to Paris. Ms. Behbahani is Iran's leading contemporary Poet and is 82 years old. This is just one example of the cold war against the intelligensia within the Country. Shirin Ebadi, though, is out of the Country and talked with Democracy Now's Amy Goodman about what is really going on:
I welcomed her unequivocal statement about the fate of the American hikers that continue to be detained by the regime charged with espionage. The rule of law has completely been disregarded by the regime in its' quest to perpetuate its power. Shirin Ebadi underscored this very fact.
I have written and reitrated the continued subtle psychological cold war against the oppostion Green Movement. The Green Movement continues its' digital opposition campaign through facebook. But, the pressure is there and goes on nonstop. I was laughing out loud when I read about an interview by an Iranian Presidential Staffer about a so-called Velvet Revolution which was planned out by the opposition. This Staffer, who is supposedly the head of the Iranian Presidency Research and Analysis Service, was adamant that he had proof of this fact. Yaah right!!!!
Although Iran's self-sufficiency in Military Hardware is commendable, bombs and missiles do not equate to jobs. The aspirations of the people remains unfulfilled. The World continues to smart up and take things away continually from Iran. Vitol, one of the leading energy trading outfits in the world, has stopped dealing in supplying Iran with refined gasoline. This is probably the only way that Iran will be forced to make the necessary changes that will possibly live up to lts' original ideals that led to the 1979 Revolution in the first place. I have to wonder whether that is wishful thinking or not.
Cyberspace has been abuzz about the day after. I have been continuing to assess what the regime did to muzzle dissent. They had a strong show of force and used every trick of the book to prevent people from exercising their Democratic rights.
The World knows the true nature of this Government. The people of Iran are well aware and understand that this cannot stand. What The Economist's KAL noted is the exact true image of a Government that has lost all semblance of crediblity as a Democratic Force. Furthermore, the idiotic nature of this so-called show of force was shown when Google Earth Images reflected the true "turn-out" at the event:
Anyone who thinks that this Government has crediblity needs to really think twice. The regime will continue to hang on through games, intimidation and manipulation. What is gratifying to see is that the people are seeing through this and will not back down.
In about nine days, the first decade of the 21st Century will be history. And wow what a decade it has been!!!!
As I think about this decade, I remember how our lives changed for ever. I remember when 9/11 happened. I remember when George W. Bush went on television to tell us about Iraq. I remember when there was the dawn of hope and possilbiites in Iran that was dashed by the election of Ahmadinejad. I also remember when Barack Obama was elected with the hope and possiblities it presented. I also saw the June election in Iran begin a transformation process that is yet to play itself out
The headlines around the world were full of Iran's reaction to the censure by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The Parliament (The Majlis) came out to dowgrade the relationship with the IAEA because they felt that the IAEA had overstepped its' boundary.
This, to me, is just amusing. It was interesting that as long as Dr. El Baradi was placating Iran, the IAEA were the good guys. Now, the IAEA called out Iran's bluff and Iran now feels "slighted" by the IAEA and has begun plans to start 10 new plants. Although the world headlines say 10, the actual State Media annoucement called for 15. The point is that they have thrown down the gauntlet and what happens next is anyone's guess
Iran is about to go into a crucial meeting in a few hours. As I wrote before, I would love to be a fly in the wall to see what Saeed Jalili, Iran's Chief Nuclear Negotiator, will say to the P5 1 Group on what Iran's position is. The Iranians have said they are going to let the IAEA inspect the new facility and have reinforced their view that they will never have a nuclear bomb. The entire political leadership is in sync on this
Iran has been busy yet again. Between a new Uranium Enrichment Plant and new military manuevours, it is clear that Iran is trying to assert its' military might. The talks coming up on October 1 is going to be pivotal. What is bothersome is how Iran seems to be forgetting what is important vs. what is imperative. The U.S. seemed to have known before Iran voluntarily notified the IAEA. The Iranian Political leadership's crediblity is non-existent. I would love to be a fly on the wall to see what Saeed Jalili, Iran's Point man on the nuclear negotations, will do to talk Iran out of this latest fiasco.
It has been a very busy week-end. There is of course Burma and the fact that Jim Webb got to see the Pro-Democracy Leader and the Chief Thug who runs Burma today. There is the burning debate over healthcare that dominated the airwaves over the week-end on U.S Sunday Talk Show Circuit. There was of course Afghanistan and the upcoming election. And last, but no tleast, there is of course Iran.
Our World continues to be as tumulous as ever. In Afghanistan, the major offensive continues. A top British officer was killed in operations in Helmand--the first in over 27 years according to the reports I reviewed. I also saw reports of an American Soldier having been kidnapped and subsequently sold to a militant clan.
Moving on to South Asia, there is Burma. The UN Secretary General is going to Burma to press for the political opening that has elluded Burma so far. I think it is a risky trip for Mr. Ban because the thugs who run Burma seem not to want to listen to reason. In the meantime, Aung San Suu Kyi, is under detention and her trial was postponed yet again. The Secretary General seems to realize how tough a mission he has undertaken. What are the thugs afraid of? Why can't they just disappear like the thugs who ran Argentina and Chile
Mousavi continues to defy the regime. The Friday Prayer Leader, A guy by the name of Khatami (which I understand is no relation to the Ex-President), came out for harsh sentences against the protesters. The Supreme National Security Council of Iran cautioned Mousavi to stop his objections to the elections. The newly appointed President came out to provide some "friendly" advise to Mr. Obama to stop "meddling". The guy who is the mouthpiece for the Guardian Council was emphathic in his pronoucements that this was the cleanest election ever. To top it all off, there is a new line peddled by the Iranian Ambassador to Mexico about Neda being killed by the CIA. If I did not know better, I think they would have had a sold out crowd at the Improv
Iran's struggle to be free continues. I have not seen any updates from either Mr. Mousavi or Mr. Khatami in a number of hours. But citizens journalists are continuing their nonstop grassroot efforts. The struggle for the voices to be heard continues.
What I feared in fact has happened. The regime has shot its way into short term survival. Arrests have continued unabatted. Some have been released. But, people are worried. I received an email from an acquantiance that the official who revealed Mousavi's win had been killed in an auto accident. This assertion cannot be confirmed. The video showing Neda's death became a symbol. It has become a rallying point for all who understand that change is in the air. The fact that the brutality of the regime was shown is a sign to the world that there is no going back
A new day is beginning in Tehran. The stories of the brutality are just sickening. I just received word from one person whose intergrity is beyond reproach. At a hospital in Tehran, the number of people with broken bones and bodies were too much to count. There were also five persons confirmed dead at the same hospital. Another eyewitness tells of wanting to help an old woman who was beaten by the regime's goons and was threatened to be shot if he did not move on. Such is the state of things in Iran right now.
Khameini made a conscious decision to shoot his way to preservation. This decision has betrayed the very Constitution he fought for, the beliefs that he has as a clergy for the sake of power. He and his side kick, idiotnejad, view their right to govern as "divine". That "divine" right was gone forever when they decided to shoot on people who only wanted to speak up for their rights. They seem to forget one little factor: The people of Iran
About thirty minutes ago, Ayatollah Khameini finished his speech at the weekly Tehran Friday Prayers. He spoke for almost two hours. Not withstanding the religious overtones, he made explicit statements about the elections and the current political stalement in Iran today. I was not really shocked when he once again spoke up for Idiotnejad. He specifically said that Idiotnejad's views were closer to his own. He specifically said that the difference in votes is a clear mandate for idiotnejad to continue his policies. He also said that all protests must stop. All matters should be referred to and be investigated by the Guardian Council. The push by Mr. Mousavi and Mr. Karoubi to have the vote annuled was rejected by Ayatollah Khameini explicity.
During his speech, the entire political leadership of the country was there. The two key players absent were Mr. Moussavi and Mr. Karoubi. Rafsanjani was also absent. Khameini specifically rose to Rafsanjani's Defense. He said that they have "differences". But, he also told the country that he had known him for over 50 years and that Rafsanjani is a brother revolutionary. He admonished all for some of the potentially libelous action that has been going on too
As I write this, the official results are being announced by the Ministry of the Interior. What has been reported by the Interior Ministry is quite remarkable. The Al Jazeera correspodent is reporting that the Incubment President has gotten over 24,000,000 Votes (some 64% of the vote). There are reports that The incumbent has even won in the City of Tabriz, Mr. Mousavi's Hometown. What is even more strange is that the results were announced as the voting continued to go on. I wonder what happened to all the votes of the Iranian ex-pats who voted in some 133 countries. But, there are still a few other steps that need to be taken before the "official" results are announced. So, this drama will play itself out for a while yet
As I continue to assess the aftermath of Mr. Obama's Speech, I was particuarly keen to find out the official reaction of the Iranian Government now that the speech was actually given. I have not seen any indication of an "official" response yet. The world hopefully realizes that Iran is in the midst of an election.
There were some crucial elements of the speech that should truly be noted as a change for Iran. There was an acknowledgement of the role the United States played in the overthrow of Dr. Mohammad Mossadeq in 1953. The CIA spent 700,000 Dollars to bring back the Shah. This is a historical fact and is not in dispute. Furthermore, the President went further by noting Iran's right to nuclear energy. This should also be appealing to the Iranian Government. But he did also note that Iran's record is not pristine either. The 1979 hostage crisis is one of the darkest chapters in Iranian history. Mr. Khatami did apologize for this and the so-called students who took over the embassy came out in the 90's to acknowledge the historical mistake. There is general consesus that this move helped to consolidate and preseve the Islamic Republic during its' most unstable time
I have been assessing the reaction to Mr. Obama speech throughout the day. These are two images of people tuned in throughout the Muslim World (Source: The BBC):
I have been assessing the State of the Elections so far. According to the Interior Ministry, some 475 people had registered to run for President. Most of them will probably be dismissed by the Guardian Council. But, the big four (Moussavi, Rezaii, Ahmadinjead & Karoubi) will probably pass the vetting process.
There are two developments that I find very, very interesting. The first one is that the State Broadcaster has proposed to air a debate of the major candidates. The Interior Ministry has approved it. In addition, Ahmadinejad's former Interior Minister has come out against him. During the interview as reported on PressTV, he notes that a number of leading clergy are already vying for Moussavi, the Former Prime Minister, to win the Presidency
:Will the People be Allowed to make their choice known?
Iran's Election is coming up. I have written here about the candidacy of Mir Hossein Mossavi, the Former Prime Minister who is vying to replace the current President. He held a press conference earlier this week in Tehran, where he vowed to end "extremism". I was also quite gratified when I saw his committment to pursue what he termed as "detente" with the west. He noted that, "..we have to make a lot of effort to gain the world's trust once again.". I find this a powerful statement from a pillar of the establishment who was a key figure during the War with Iraq. He is known as an honest and efficient manager who kept the country together during those trying years.
The unknown quantity here is the Supreme Leader Ali Khameini. I listened to his New Year Message in the City of Mashad, when he spoke out after Barack Obama's New Year Message. He said that he is only one man and has one vote and will note support any candidate. He said that he saw his role as supporting the Government of the Day. I hope that he would truly live up to this committment. Although Iranians are a proud nation with a rich history, they are also patient. If they were not patient, they would not put up with all that they have had to endure over the past thirty years
There was a recent poll taken in Iran to assess how the major Presidential Candiddates fared in the upcoming elections. The current President polled at 36.8%, the former President Mohammad Khatami polled at 28.4%, the Former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mossavi polled at 11.8% and the former Parliamentary Speaker polled at less than 1%.
As I assessed this poll results (taken before the advent of the holidays and the traditional two weeks of vacation in Iran), I found it quite signifcant. If the moderate forces do in fact unite, they will present a profound challenge to idiotnejad. The current President has the power of incumbency and the entire state apparatus at his disposal. Yet, somehow, the people of Iran have a knack to pull off a rabbit out of a hat
As Iran's revolution approaches its' 30th anniversary, another milestone has been achieved. Iran has launched a satellite to space. I think it is quite a milestone. But this milestone is tempered by the continued economic difficulties the country is facing. The Government has its priorities backward. For instance, the Education Minister annouced that the Government will try to insure Free Public Education if possible under the provisions of the Constitution. The priorities of any Government must be to insure the health and welfare of its' citizens
:I can't wait for this man to depart the scene....
The so-called President of Iran went on one of his tirades. He went through a laundry list of complaints against the Untied States after President Obama extended an olive branch to Iran in his interview with Al Arabia. I have been listening to some of the Iranian pundits noting that the United States will talk to Iran. The question is when and how.
Right now, what I think should happen is for Iran to be basically left alone as it goes through the Presidential election. If I were a betting man, I would be against idiotnejad simply because he is an idiot that has driven Iran to the ground. He does not seem to grasp that the world is changing. Iran needs to change with it. But, idiotnejad seems to have the delusion that everything is great in Iran. If Iran did not have oil, it will be another Zimbabwe.
The Iranian Government has presented its' budget request to Parliament. Idiotnejad spoke to Parliament yesterday. One of the claims he has made is how much "headway" he has made in improving the economic condition of the country. One of the more outlandish claims he has made is that the country enjoys a 7% unemployment rate. He has also said that his government has diversifed away from OIl as the primary source of income. This fits well with George Bush's definiton of Voodo Economics.
If Ahmadinejad is to be believed, Iran is the best performing economy in the entire world and is immune from the World-Wide Economic Tsunami. This is far from the truth and frankly dishonest. Hopefully, the people will cashier him out of office and Khameini will create a position for him to run some foundation. The man has no clue about anything. The world seems to realize that. Hopefully the people will see through his facade in such a way that the election fixers cannot even do their magic
Mrs. Clinton has now been confirmed as Secretary of State. I am anxiously some truly earth-shattering annoucements on the foreign policy front over the ensuingd days. I am very, very excited about George Mitchell being appointed Middle East Envoy. The man helped bring peace to Northern Ireland. Although his record on the Middle East was not as effective, I still think he can do wonders. I also do fondly remember how he put Baseball on a solid footing after the scandals that has engulfed Roger Clemens, Mark McGuire and many others. I view it as a sign of things to come
When you're a legend in your own brain, there is not much that can be done to talk some sense into you. Ahmadinejad, the so-called Iranian President, is exactly that kind of man. What is funny is that there was a report in the Islamic Republic News Agency noting that Ahmadinejad is the subject of an immense propaganda campaign by the United States. The remarks were attributed to someone who worked in the Nixon Adminstration. Well, they are right--to an extent. Ahmadinejad has been the object of scorn by the U.S. Rightwing. The U.S. Rightwing needs someone to attack. But, the man is a joke and a fool. Thankfully, some truly understand that the man is not the ultimate authority in Iran.
The reality is that the Iranian economy is in dire straits. It apparently has the Regime Worried--and rightly so. Although Iran has budgeted its' receipts based on about $ 45 a barrel I believe. With the drop in Oil Prices, the government appears to be worried. The Oil Minister wants to push for a production cut to help stabilize and increase prices. But, this again shows the total banrkupcy of the vision of this so-called Revolutionary Government that is running Iran right now. Iran needs to realize that the world is moving on. But, Iran seems to be stuck in the past, anyway. Maybe I am expecting too much. Iran has a government where the Interior Minister got a bogus Doctorate, taught at a University for thirty years and in fact all he had was a High School Level Education. So, the world should discount and disregard the idiot
Mike Pouraryan
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