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When will they realize that they're on the wrong Path....
The official celebrations have begun. This is as the Opposition has called for massive protests. I am monitoring Al Jazeera and there was just a report of clashes on Sadeghi Square. Mehdi Karoubi one of the key opposition leaders was due to arrive there.
As this was going on, the regime had restricted Internet Access and detained opposition activitists. Yesterday's New York Times reported that the wife and children of a jailed journalist were summoned to the Revolutionary Court for questioning. It was simply unbelievable. Google has been reporting that access to GMAIL was restricted. The opposition, though, was as ready as it could be. The main internal opposition site for the Green Movement had already sent out at least one proxy server for access to all a day before. I saw it and posted it to my own facebook account to help spread the word.
Al Jazeera featured another University of Tehran Lecturer who tried to be a bit more reasonable than the normal mouthpiece for the regime, Mirmarandi, who toes the regime's official line in a major way. He noted that there is broad support for the government and a belief that Ahmadinejad actually won the election. I suppose if a lie is constantly pushed that lie would ultimately turn out to be true. Anyone remember the WMD story in Iraq?
Right now, there are no updates on Facebook. Ahmadinejad has arrived at the celebrations and is due to speak shortly. Knowing him, he will probably go on a tirade against the West and Israel. He is continuing to speak right now telling the world that the Iran has already enriched uranium. As they regime puts on another show, what they continue to fail to answer is why they are afraid of opposition. There are also reports of Mehdi Karoubi and Mohammad Khatami being attacked to intimidate the opposition. There are also reports that the opposition is attacking and bringing down Government Websites. There is also a report that Mohammad Reza Khatami the former President's Brother and his wife the grand daughter of the Islamic Republic's Founder have also been detained.
Such reports are showing the profound schism within the ruling establishment. The regime will not change quickly and will do what it has to do to live through this. I am not surprised at this continued repression. It is bound to continue Not withstanding the so-called show of force, the question that the regime is not answering is this: Why are they not allowing the true aspirations of the Iranian People to be realized? What are they afraid of?
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A sign of desparation!??!
Although I have been focused on closing out the year, I interrupted my vacation to report on Iran's latest developments. The world was witness to the latest propaganda offensive by the leading personalities of the regime. Ahmadinejad came out and denoucned the protests. Larijani, the Parliamentary Speaker, demanded justice. Others called for Mousavi's head. Adding to this facade, Government Workers were given a day off and apparently $ 150 Dollars to turn out en masse to "support" the regime. I almost fell out of my chair in laughter when I read all the tributes to the marches and how they punched the world in the mouth with their solidarity. The reality is quite different
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Is this the trigger or not?
Iran arose again during Ashora. Ashora is the day Shias remember the martrydom of Imam Hussein the Prophet Mohammad's Grandson. The sights I saw was heartening and the bravery I saw took my breath away
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September 27th 2009 17:26
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Truly Never a Dull Moment!!!!
Iran has been busy yet again. Between a new Uranium Enrichment Plant and new military manuevours, it is clear that Iran is trying to assert its' military might. The talks coming up on October 1 is going to be pivotal. What is bothersome is how Iran seems to be forgetting what is important vs. what is imperative. The U.S. seemed to have known before Iran voluntarily notified the IAEA. The Iranian Political leadership's crediblity is non-existent. I would love to be a fly on the wall to see what Saeed Jalili, Iran's Point man on the nuclear negotations, will do to talk Iran out of this latest fiasco.
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Truly Never a Dull Moment!!!
It has been a very busy week-end. There is of course Burma and the fact that Jim Webb got to see the Pro-Democracy Leader and the Chief Thug who runs Burma today. There is the burning debate over healthcare that dominated the airwaves over the week-end on U.S Sunday Talk Show Circuit. There was of course Afghanistan and the upcoming election. And last, but no tleast, there is of course Iran.
Here was a sampling of the debate over healthcare
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Who do they think they're fooling?
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Will the Regime Get Away with it?
The regime has shown its' brutal side. What I called the "Burma Option" in fact did occur. All instruments of repression was employed and the opposition has been forced to withdraw.
Although the regime seems to have shot its' way to short-term survival, the fight for freedom and democracy is raging on facebook, What I've found striking was the clergy joining some of the demonstrations
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Will something happen soon?
There have been virtually no demonstrations since the disturbances on Saturday. What I feared did in fact happen. The Basij (the regime's goons) and the security forces saw to it that the protests are crushed. I reviewed Mr. Mousavi's latest statement where he urges everyone on with their protests about eight hours ago on Facebook.
Right now, I see a report on CNN stating that the Guardian Council has rejected complaints of voter irregularity. However, the statement from the spokesman for the Guardian Council says that they are ready to address specific complaints from Mr.Karoubi and Mr. Mousavi. I was laughing as I read the statement. The utter contempt and lack of regard for true process was really shown in how he made his statement to the press
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What will Khameini Say Now?
When I started Outsiderviews a year ago, little did I know that on its' one year anniversary, I will be again Witness to History. The opposition in Iran did not blink. The reason Mousavi and Karoubi did not go to the Guardian Council was because they understood that the decision was going to be a foregone conclusion. They understood that there is no turning back. Mousavi's declaration on being ready for Martrydom means that he has directly challenged the authority of the Rahbar (Supreme Leader). I find this signficant.
There are many soldiers in this fight. I salute all those who have taken up the cause to support this fight. I salute Embassies in Tehran who have agreed to take in the wounded. I salute Twitter, Facebook and Google. They are the new soldiers in the quest for Freedom and democracy. I salute those who have given their life for this cause. These brave souls should not be allowed to die in vain
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Will the Armed Forces Do the right thing?
The drama in Iran continues to unfold. As I wrote earlier, Khameini threw down the gauntlet when he spoke. I was frankly shocked as to how political his speech was. As I heard him speak, he very much violated the spirit of his own office, which is supposed to be above the fray. He truly seemed out of touch
The people's defiance is breathtaking. Mr. Mousavi's Facebook page had this youtube video posted to it earlier tonight
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We can't let the Iranian People Down!!!!.
One cannot help but be proud to see such outpouring of emotion at this push towards Democracy. All indications are that it just is not going to stop. I just finished reviewing Karoubi's call for a mass demonstration for Friday to converge about Tehran University. I also reviewed Mohsen Rezaii's admonitioni to the Minister of the Interior demanding exact election data which is yet to happen. Mousavi has called for massive demonstration tomorrow.
This is a regime that is clearly nervous. Barack Obama came out and was restrained. Yet the Swiss Ambassador was called in to protest US intereference. I wonder what the Government's reaction would have been if Barack Obama came out as Nicolas Sarkozy did or as Angela Merkel did. The Iranian Footballers have sported Mr. Moussavi's Campaign colors as well as a sign of solidarity. This is the scenes that BBC was able to show earlier today
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We should stop our vigliance
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Will the Genie be put back in the bottle?
The dust is yet to settle on the Iranian Elections. I am just floored by the arrogance of the man who got handed the Presidency yet again by the political establishment. In this exchange with Christian Amanpour, he does not answer the question and starts going on a tirade about a football match:
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...Let's not lose hope, yet!!!
As I write this, the official results are being announced by the Ministry of the Interior. What has been reported by the Interior Ministry is quite remarkable. The Al Jazeera correspodent is reporting that the Incubment President has gotten over 24,000,000 Votes (some 64% of the vote). There are reports that The incumbent has even won in the City of Tabriz, Mr. Mousavi's Hometown. What is even more strange is that the results were announced as the voting continued to go on. I wonder what happened to all the votes of the Iranian ex-pats who voted in some 133 countries. But, there are still a few other steps that need to be taken before the "official" results are announced. So, this drama will play itself out for a while yet
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No Surprises Though.....
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Not Really Surprised....
Early returns have come in Iran. So far, the incumbent President is leading by a 2-1 margin. I am not really surprised. According to the figures released by Iranian Election Officials, 15 Million People have voted for the incumbent. If one adds up the Basij Milita and the Revolutionary Gurads, that accounts for almost 45-50% of the vote so far. There is over 60% of the votes that is yet to be counted. The whole world awaits.
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Change is Truly In the Air.....
In about two hours, the polls open in Iran in one of the most pivotal elections since the 1979 Revolution. I have been fascinated by how the whole country has been galvanized. As I have written before, the choices are stark. Some are still apathetic. But, I view this change as historic.
Ann Curry of NBC News was in Iran to do a special on NBC News' Dateline. I congratulate her on her reporting. This has been one of the most balanced and even handed reporting I have ever seen. It is such even-handed reporting that will help bridge the gap of mistrust
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Will it in fact happen?
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A Lot of Work Still Ahead....
As I continue to assess the aftermath of Mr. Obama's Speech, I was particuarly keen to find out the official reaction of the Iranian Government now that the speech was actually given. I have not seen any indication of an "official" response yet. The world hopefully realizes that Iran is in the midst of an election.
There were some crucial elements of the speech that should truly be noted as a change for Iran. There was an acknowledgement of the role the United States played in the overthrow of Dr. Mohammad Mossadeq in 1953. The CIA spent 700,000 Dollars to bring back the Shah. This is a historical fact and is not in dispute. Furthermore, the President went further by noting Iran's right to nuclear energy. This should also be appealing to the Iranian Government. But he did also note that Iran's record is not pristine either. The 1979 hostage crisis is one of the darkest chapters in Iranian history. Mr. Khatami did apologize for this and the so-called students who took over the embassy came out in the 90's to acknowledge the historical mistake. There is general consesus that this move helped to consolidate and preseve the Islamic Republic during its' most unstable time
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Not Surprised At all....
I have been assessing the reaction to Mr. Obama speech throughout the day. These are two images of people tuned in throughout the Muslim World (Source: The BBC):
A Muslim Family in India
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..and I thought I was going to be bored!!!
The elections in Iran are becoming as colorful as the elections in America. I realize that some may disagree, but the tone of the debate continues to fascinate me nonetheless.
During Friday prayers at Tehran University, the man leading the prayers talked about how candidates who were criticizing the present government were undermining the fabric of the Islamic Republic. To add insult to injury, a Majlis (Deputy) from the capital Tehran, noted that the leading opponent of the current President, Mr. Moussavi is not a Seyed. For those who do not know what that means, a Seyed is a direct decedant of the Prophet Mohammad and the implication that somehow Mr. Moussavi is not one but claims to be one means that he is misleading the public. One must also add Mr. Moussavi's overt campaign appearances with his wife--who is an intellectual in her own right
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Not really surprised.....
Will He Ever Learn?
Idiotnejad sure made a splash with his so-called speech at the UN conference in Switerzland. He managed to antagonize the whole world in the process. . I am trying to understand why he decided to, when he could have easily sent his Foreign Minister. No other head of state or Government attended Durban II anyway
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Will the People be Allowed to make their choice known?
Iran's Election is coming up. I have written here about the candidacy of Mir Hossein Mossavi, the Former Prime Minister who is vying to replace the current President. He held a press conference earlier this week in Tehran, where he vowed to end "extremism". I was also quite gratified when I saw his committment to pursue what he termed as "detente" with the west. He noted that, "..we have to make a lot of effort to gain the world's trust once again.". I find this a powerful statement from a pillar of the establishment who was a key figure during the War with Iraq. He is known as an honest and efficient manager who kept the country together during those trying years.
The unknown quantity here is the Supreme Leader Ali Khameini. I listened to his New Year Message in the City of Mashad, when he spoke out after Barack Obama's New Year Message. He said that he is only one man and has one vote and will note support any candidate. He said that he saw his role as supporting the Government of the Day. I hope that he would truly live up to this committment. Although Iranians are a proud nation with a rich history, they are also patient. If they were not patient, they would not put up with all that they have had to endure over the past thirty years
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Mike Pouraryan
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