The anniversary of Iran's Presidential Poll is upon us. This is the period whereby the whole country rose up to challenge the clerical dictatorship that usurped the original intent of the Revolution and began a process of finishing off any semblance of Constitutional Government in Iran. Some may say that it never existed. There were at least some semblance of respect for the law prior to June 12, 2009. It all went away.
The Green Movement is continuing on. However, the Government has tightened things in such a way that the key leaders have resorted to periodic pronoucements over facebook. They held a Virtual News Conference via Facebook to discuss what they are trying to do. I also saw YouTube postings on "God is Great" chants again througout Tehran. What I foresaw during the uprising has been proven true. HBO, though, produced a documentary on NEDA, the woman who epitomized the struggle and who gave her life during those tumulous days:
The Government ignored Mousavi and Karoubi's request to hold a rally. There was also a warning from Security Forces that they were going to crack down--and hard!!! I continue to marvel at Mousavi and Karoubi's continued courage, though. They continue to speak out and have not been silenced. I also am quite amazed that the Government is yet to arrest them. I suppose they are afraid. Why don't they just finish these guys off and be done with it?
I think that Iran has Burma (Myanmar) to look up to. Over in Burma, the thugs don't care about the people, about public opinion and go about doing their business as if they are immune. The world huffs and puffs. Yet, nothing happens. This will be the case with Iran as well. The UN has imposed sanctions. But, if the story in the New York TImes about Iranian Shipping is any indication, the Iranians are adept at circumventing sanctions. Furthermore, the Obama Adminstration's policy of talking tough and carrying a soft stick will continue to work in Iran's favor. The Obama Adminstration is already working to try and preempt Congressional Authority over the sanctions. I am not certain if that will work either in light of the fact the leverage and the kick the United States has is actually very minimal now.
What the United States must come to grips with is the advent of a new axis in the Middle East: The TIS Axis. TIS stands for Turkey, Iran and Syria. Iran and Syria are no friends of the United States. Turkey, a long standing friend, has been making some major regional moves to assert its' influence over the former Ottoman Empire. Israel will be wise to listen to Abdullah Gul, Turkey's President. It should eat crow, apologize, pay compensation and make amends now. The turks are a stubborn bunch and if they are crossed, they will not forgive easily. Both Israel and the United States need to understand that.
I once reflected upon Tom Friedman's comment calling America The Greatest Show on Earth during an appearance on Meet the Press. Although I tend to agree in light of the continued excitement and challenges the country faces, I regard Iran just as much a wonderful show and a challenge to understand and analyze. What is certain is that the regime is firmly entrenched and there is no sign of it loosening its' grip. The question becomes if sanctions truly begin to bite and long-standing customers begin to stop buying Iran's Oil. It is only then that it really becomes interesting....only then......
The last number of weeks have been quite startling, to say the least. As I write this, Iran is in the midst of a National Holiday to commemorate the death of the Prophet Mohammad's Daughter, Fatima. Last night saw Ayatollah Khameini preside over a remembrance in Tehran. Iran's National News Network is now broadcasting reflections on the Prophet's Daughter and the lessons that can be learnt from her life.
Events in Iran continue to be as quite dynamic as ever on the political front. As the opposition continues to be under pressure, The Government tries to portray an aura of normalcy. In a few hours, The G-15 Meeting being held in Tehran is slated to begin. The Turkish Prime Minister, the Brazilian President, the President of Algeria and the President of Senegal have been among World Leaders who have arrived in Tehran for this occassion.
Some of these luminaries have been given an audience with Ayatollah Khameini, Iran's Supreme Leader (or Leader of the Revolution).
Iran continues its' Iran's continued attempt to fight the expected sanctions have taken on even more of an urgency in light of the move by the Western Powers. What I find especially quite startling is an apparent agreement struck between Brazil, Iran and Turkey for Fuel Swap. President Lula warned Iran that it should be focused on the peaceful use of nuclear weapons. The United States has underscored it. Yet, there is a concerted campaign to have Iran be portrayed as marching towards Nuclear Weapons. Whether that in fact is true or not remains to be seen.
On another note, it was gratifying news to hear that Iran had released the young French teacher's aide. She arrived in Paris yesterday and saw the French President. What I found quite ironic was that the killer of the late Sha's last Former Prime Minister was paroled and then expelled from France. The French noted that there was no swamp. When I saw this denial by the French Government, I laughed.
What will happen now? Will the Brazilians and the Turks succeed where others have failed? Will we see some sense of stability which is vital as Afghanistan Burns and Pakistan continues to be on the edge? Time will tell.
Iran just adopted a new budget. The new budget has finally cut basic subsidies. Instead, it will be doing cash payouts. They took their queue from the block grant scheme that was done during the Reagan Adminstration in the United States. I find that a disturbing development because of the continued calamity within the Iranian Economy.
The Chief of the Coup Government (what the Green Movement calls Idiotnejad) has been quite busy. He just inaugurated a new double-decker highway in the City of Isfahan. He also has been criss-crossing the country again handing out goodies to all and has been quite hyperactive
:When will they realize that they're on the wrong Path....
The official celebrations have begun. This is as the Opposition has called for massive protests. I am monitoring Al Jazeera and there was just a report of clashes on Sadeghi Square. Mehdi Karoubi one of the key opposition leaders was due to arrive there.
As this was going on, the regime had restricted Internet Access and detained opposition activitists. Yesterday's New York Times reported that the wife and children of a jailed journalist were summoned to the Revolutionary Court for questioning. It was simply unbelievable. Google has been reporting that access to GMAIL was restricted. The opposition, though, was as ready as it could be. The main internal opposition site for the Green Movement had already sent out at least one proxy server for access to all a day before. I saw it and posted it to my own facebook account to help spread the word
The death of Professor Massoud Mohammadi has been dominating the headlines in Iran for the past number of hours. The Professor was killed as he was leaving for Work. He taught nuclear physics at Tehran University
Although I have been focused on closing out the year, I interrupted my vacation to report on Iran's latest developments. The world was witness to the latest propaganda offensive by the leading personalities of the regime. Ahmadinejad came out and denoucned the protests. Larijani, the Parliamentary Speaker, demanded justice. Others called for Mousavi's head. Adding to this facade, Government Workers were given a day off and apparently $ 150 Dollars to turn out en masse to "support" the regime. I almost fell out of my chair in laughter when I read all the tributes to the marches and how they punched the world in the mouth with their solidarity. The reality is quite different
Iran arose again during Ashora. Ashora is the day Shias remember the martrydom of Imam Hussein the Prophet Mohammad's Grandson. The sights I saw was heartening and the bravery I saw took my breath away
Iran has been busy yet again. Between a new Uranium Enrichment Plant and new military manuevours, it is clear that Iran is trying to assert its' military might. The talks coming up on October 1 is going to be pivotal. What is bothersome is how Iran seems to be forgetting what is important vs. what is imperative. The U.S. seemed to have known before Iran voluntarily notified the IAEA. The Iranian Political leadership's crediblity is non-existent. I would love to be a fly on the wall to see what Saeed Jalili, Iran's Point man on the nuclear negotations, will do to talk Iran out of this latest fiasco.
It has been a very busy week-end. There is of course Burma and the fact that Jim Webb got to see the Pro-Democracy Leader and the Chief Thug who runs Burma today. There is the burning debate over healthcare that dominated the airwaves over the week-end on U.S Sunday Talk Show Circuit. There was of course Afghanistan and the upcoming election. And last, but no tleast, there is of course Iran.
This past twenty hours the so-called "coup President" in Iran being affirmed in his office by his mentor, Iran's Supreme Leader. As I monitored Iranian Official Media, I was frankly shocked that the Regime's News Network did not break away coverage. The only coverage that I saw was PressTV, the Regime's English Language Service featuring some commentator looking forward to the next four years of the "Coup President
Well, for every Laurel, there truly has to be a Hardy. The past week saw an uproar by Iran's Amen Crowd over the appointment that the "Coup President" made for the position of first Vice President. Khameini ordered the new guy to be "dismissed". The new guy obliged. Now, the "coup President", Mr. Idiotnejad, has appointed the same guy as the head of his office. This is the equivalent position of an Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff. As the "gate keeper", he will yield more power than the First Vice President. I guess family matters in such issues. I would also guarantee that idiotnejad cleared it with the Master anyway to avoid any further issues. So, the Laurel and Hardy of Iranian Politics is hereby presented to the World
Over the last few days, a very disturbing developments has shown the true nature of the political elite that run Iran today. Iran's "Coup President" has been working on formulating his Government. Iran has 12 Vice Presidents, with the First Vice President being the first in equals. He (or she) chairs Cabinet Meetings when the President is not available and will take over in the event that the President is not able to tend to his duties.
When The "Coup President" announced his new First Vice President, it caused an uproar. It chose such an uproar that Khameini intervened and told the "Coup President" to dismiss the new guy. What this showed that the people have no role. What this showed was that the Islamic Constitution that notes that the vote of the people has no role in the decision making process by the Islamic Republic. Before this overt move, what was also quite distrubing was remark Khameini made at an event marking the birth of the Prophet. Khameini warned the "elite" against making overt moves to undermine the system. Furthermore, to make matters even more interesting, was a letter issued by the Council of Experts. The regime's media issued a statement signed by a majority of the experts expressing their support for the Islamic System and for the leadership of Khameini in particular. It praised his "enlightened" leadership . This is especially interesting in light of the sermon the leader of the Council, Rafsanjani made about the need for the Islamic system to reconnect with the voters. The signature noted that they were a "majority" of the council. But, there were no names assigned to it
The Establishment has been up in arms against Mr. Rafsanjani's speech. This truly shows that the regime is nervous as hell. That's a good sign that the unrest is not going to die down at all. The attacks by the conservatives are continuing and frankly truly hillarious. But, that is to be expected.
The headline of the Islamic Republic News Agency is a Statement by Idiotnejad's office about a call to service to all Iranians to join the Government. I guess he decided to steal a page out of Obama's playbook. He also appointed his son's father-in-law as his first Vice President. He used to serve as a Vice President in charge of Tourism. I have been trying to assess his exact qualifications and impetus for the position. There is a real push towards "normalcy" and business as usual
The regime has shown its' brutal side. What I called the "Burma Option" in fact did occur. All instruments of repression was employed and the opposition has been forced to withdraw.
Although the regime seems to have shot its' way to short-term survival, the fight for freedom and democracy is raging on facebook, What I've found striking was the clergy joining some of the demonstrations
Iran's struggle to be free continues. I have not seen any updates from either Mr. Mousavi or Mr. Khatami in a number of hours. But citizens journalists are continuing their nonstop grassroot efforts. The struggle for the voices to be heard continues.
What I feared in fact has happened. The regime has shot its way into short term survival. Arrests have continued unabatted. Some have been released. But, people are worried. I received an email from an acquantiance that the official who revealed Mousavi's win had been killed in an auto accident. This assertion cannot be confirmed. The video showing Neda's death became a symbol. It has become a rallying point for all who understand that change is in the air. The fact that the brutality of the regime was shown is a sign to the world that there is no going back
There have been virtually no demonstrations since the disturbances on Saturday. What I feared did in fact happen. The Basij (the regime's goons) and the security forces saw to it that the protests are crushed. I reviewed Mr. Mousavi's latest statement where he urges everyone on with their protests about eight hours ago on Facebook.
Right now, I see a report on CNN stating that the Guardian Council has rejected complaints of voter irregularity. However, the statement from the spokesman for the Guardian Council says that they are ready to address specific complaints from Mr.Karoubi and Mr. Mousavi. I was laughing as I read the statement. The utter contempt and lack of regard for true process was really shown in how he made his statement to the press
A new day is beginning in Tehran. The stories of the brutality are just sickening. I just received word from one person whose intergrity is beyond reproach. At a hospital in Tehran, the number of people with broken bones and bodies were too much to count. There were also five persons confirmed dead at the same hospital. Another eyewitness tells of wanting to help an old woman who was beaten by the regime's goons and was threatened to be shot if he did not move on. Such is the state of things in Iran right now.
Khameini made a conscious decision to shoot his way to preservation. This decision has betrayed the very Constitution he fought for, the beliefs that he has as a clergy for the sake of power. He and his side kick, idiotnejad, view their right to govern as "divine". That "divine" right was gone forever when they decided to shoot on people who only wanted to speak up for their rights. They seem to forget one little factor: The people of Iran
When I started Outsiderviews a year ago, little did I know that on its' one year anniversary, I will be again Witness to History. The opposition in Iran did not blink. The reason Mousavi and Karoubi did not go to the Guardian Council was because they understood that the decision was going to be a foregone conclusion. They understood that there is no turning back. Mousavi's declaration on being ready for Martrydom means that he has directly challenged the authority of the Rahbar (Supreme Leader). I find this signficant.
There are many soldiers in this fight. I salute all those who have taken up the cause to support this fight. I salute Embassies in Tehran who have agreed to take in the wounded. I salute Twitter, Facebook and Google. They are the new soldiers in the quest for Freedom and democracy. I salute those who have given their life for this cause. These brave souls should not be allowed to die in vain
The drama in Iran continues to unfold. As I wrote earlier, Khameini threw down the gauntlet when he spoke. I was frankly shocked as to how political his speech was. As I heard him speak, he very much violated the spirit of his own office, which is supposed to be above the fray. He truly seemed out of touch
The people's defiance is breathtaking. Mr. Mousavi's Facebook page had this youtube video posted to it earlier tonight
In a little while, the fifth day of demonstrations will begin in Tehran. Mr. Moussavi has called for a day of mourning for the victims of the past few days. I was amazed at the reports of the demonstrations yesterday. People were marching in silence. They did it not to provoke. While the people are continuing their peaceful protests, the regime continues on the war path. It came out swinging. It has warned foreign governments, curbed foreign media and reminded the world that Iran is a lot more Democratic than others. Yaaaaaaah right!!??!!!!
The strategy today is a page out of Gandhi's book. I remember a scene in Richard Attenborough's Film. The setting is a meeting at Mohammad Ali Jinnah's House. They're discussing the new "Terrorism" legislation. Jinnah's immediate reaction is "it is time for direct action". Gandhi listens in silence and then seeds the sow of non-violent resistance that was indeed the inspiration for Dr. King and others throughout the world. He called for a day of prayer and fasting. Of course, the whole of India shut down that day. That was the beginning of the end for British Rule of India
One cannot help but be proud to see such outpouring of emotion at this push towards Democracy. All indications are that it just is not going to stop. I just finished reviewing Karoubi's call for a mass demonstration for Friday to converge about Tehran University. I also reviewed Mohsen Rezaii's admonitioni to the Minister of the Interior demanding exact election data which is yet to happen. Mousavi has called for massive demonstration tomorrow.
This is a regime that is clearly nervous. Barack Obama came out and was restrained. Yet the Swiss Ambassador was called in to protest US intereference. I wonder what the Government's reaction would have been if Barack Obama came out as Nicolas Sarkozy did or as Angela Merkel did. The Iranian Footballers have sported Mr. Moussavi's Campaign colors as well as a sign of solidarity. This is the scenes that BBC was able to show earlier today
The dust is yet to settle on the Iranian Elections. I am just floored by the arrogance of the man who got handed the Presidency yet again by the political establishment. In this exchange with Christian Amanpour, he does not answer the question and starts going on a tirade about a football match:
As I write this, the official results are being announced by the Ministry of the Interior. What has been reported by the Interior Ministry is quite remarkable. The Al Jazeera correspodent is reporting that the Incubment President has gotten over 24,000,000 Votes (some 64% of the vote). There are reports that The incumbent has even won in the City of Tabriz, Mr. Mousavi's Hometown. What is even more strange is that the results were announced as the voting continued to go on. I wonder what happened to all the votes of the Iranian ex-pats who voted in some 133 countries. But, there are still a few other steps that need to be taken before the "official" results are announced. So, this drama will play itself out for a while yet
Early returns have come in Iran. So far, the incumbent President is leading by a 2-1 margin. I am not really surprised. According to the figures released by Iranian Election Officials, 15 Million People have voted for the incumbent. If one adds up the Basij Milita and the Revolutionary Gurads, that accounts for almost 45-50% of the vote so far. There is over 60% of the votes that is yet to be counted. The whole world awaits.
In about two hours, the polls open in Iran in one of the most pivotal elections since the 1979 Revolution. I have been fascinated by how the whole country has been galvanized. As I have written before, the choices are stark. Some are still apathetic. But, I view this change as historic.
Ann Curry of NBC News was in Iran to do a special on NBC News' Dateline. I congratulate her on her reporting. This has been one of the most balanced and even handed reporting I have ever seen. It is such even-handed reporting that will help bridge the gap of mistrust
As I continue to assess the aftermath of Mr. Obama's Speech, I was particuarly keen to find out the official reaction of the Iranian Government now that the speech was actually given. I have not seen any indication of an "official" response yet. The world hopefully realizes that Iran is in the midst of an election.
There were some crucial elements of the speech that should truly be noted as a change for Iran. There was an acknowledgement of the role the United States played in the overthrow of Dr. Mohammad Mossadeq in 1953. The CIA spent 700,000 Dollars to bring back the Shah. This is a historical fact and is not in dispute. Furthermore, the President went further by noting Iran's right to nuclear energy. This should also be appealing to the Iranian Government. But he did also note that Iran's record is not pristine either. The 1979 hostage crisis is one of the darkest chapters in Iranian history. Mr. Khatami did apologize for this and the so-called students who took over the embassy came out in the 90's to acknowledge the historical mistake. There is general consesus that this move helped to consolidate and preseve the Islamic Republic during its' most unstable time
I have been assessing the reaction to Mr. Obama speech throughout the day. These are two images of people tuned in throughout the Muslim World (Source: The BBC):
The Iranian Election show is in full swing. The debate between Ahmadinejad and his leading opponent, Mr. Moussavi, has take place. The account I read in State Media reflected fireworks. The coverage by Official State Media is just really funny
The elections in Iran are becoming as colorful as the elections in America. I realize that some may disagree, but the tone of the debate continues to fascinate me nonetheless.
During Friday prayers at Tehran University, the man leading the prayers talked about how candidates who were criticizing the present government were undermining the fabric of the Islamic Republic. To add insult to injury, a Majlis (Deputy) from the capital Tehran, noted that the leading opponent of the current President, Mr. Moussavi is not a Seyed. For those who do not know what that means, a Seyed is a direct decedant of the Prophet Mohammad and the implication that somehow Mr. Moussavi is not one but claims to be one means that he is misleading the public. One must also add Mr. Moussavi's overt campaign appearances with his wife--who is an intellectual in her own right
The Presidential Election in Iran is in full swing. As the moderate standard bearer, Mir Hossein Mosavi, continues his campaign, there is another new entrant: Mohsein Rezai. He is the former Commander in Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp who now serves as Executive Secretary of the Expediency Council charged with mediating disputes between the so-called three branches of government in Iran and carrying out certain responsiblities as designated by the Supreme Leader, Ali Khameini.
Idiotnejad sure made a splash with his so-called speech at the UN conference in Switerzland. He managed to antagonize the whole world in the process. . I am trying to understand why he decided to, when he could have easily sent his Foreign Minister. No other head of state or Government attended Durban II anyway
:Will the People be Allowed to make their choice known?
Iran's Election is coming up. I have written here about the candidacy of Mir Hossein Mossavi, the Former Prime Minister who is vying to replace the current President. He held a press conference earlier this week in Tehran, where he vowed to end "extremism". I was also quite gratified when I saw his committment to pursue what he termed as "detente" with the west. He noted that, "..we have to make a lot of effort to gain the world's trust once again.". I find this a powerful statement from a pillar of the establishment who was a key figure during the War with Iraq. He is known as an honest and efficient manager who kept the country together during those trying years.
The unknown quantity here is the Supreme Leader Ali Khameini. I listened to his New Year Message in the City of Mashad, when he spoke out after Barack Obama's New Year Message. He said that he is only one man and has one vote and will note support any candidate. He said that he saw his role as supporting the Government of the Day. I hope that he would truly live up to this committment. Although Iranians are a proud nation with a rich history, they are also patient. If they were not patient, they would not put up with all that they have had to endure over the past thirty years
Mrs. Clinton has now been confirmed as Secretary of State. I am anxiously some truly earth-shattering annoucements on the foreign policy front over the ensuingd days. I am very, very excited about George Mitchell being appointed Middle East Envoy. The man helped bring peace to Northern Ireland. Although his record on the Middle East was not as effective, I still think he can do wonders. I also do fondly remember how he put Baseball on a solid footing after the scandals that has engulfed Roger Clemens, Mark McGuire and many others. I view it as a sign of things to come
The President Arrives For His First Day....A Busy One too!!!
The first day of the Obama Adminstration has begun. The President began his day by attending the National Prayer Service and got down to work. I saw him when he met with the White House and signed off on the new Ethics Rules. He has also been meeting with the Economics and National Security Teams. They have hit the ground running. Unfortunately, the Senate has not done the job by confirming the nominees. At least three key members are yet to be confirmed. A new Era has truly begun
Ahmadinejad, the Iranian Clerk-President, spoke in New York at the UN General Assembly. The man, to me, has no shame. I caught glimpses and pieces of the speech, because even looking at him drives me nuts.
Ahmadinejad has presided over an economic collapse in Iran. The people are suffering. He wants to be President, again. If a free and fair vote was held, he would be defeated without a doubt. Ahmadinejad (or stupidnejad) is a joke, a clown and an idiot. When will the world recognize it
Mike Pouraryan
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