President Obama has been on the prowl telling the World that U.S. Combat Operations will end on August 31. I welcome that as I continue to be concerned that 50,000 US troops will continue to remain. I have also continued to be disturbed by reports by commentators like Tariq Ali who note that the U.S. will continue to have a long-lasting presence not withstanding what the Adminstration leads us to believe.
The cost continues to rise ever more. I am frankly numb at the monies spent in Iraq. The daily counter featured in "outsiders" signifies the continued spending being done with no apparent end in sight. Yet, Iraqis are lucky to get a few hours of electricity every day and even luckier if they have running water. I won't even begin to discuss the job prospects, the continued uncertainty in Kurdistan and the fact that there is not even a Government in place. As always, the Economist' Kal said it best:
When the Chief of Staff of the Iraqi Army notes that the Iraqi Army is not ready, it seems that the Adminstration must step up and take notice. When there is no Government, though, there is not much that can be done. The Iraqiya Group and the State of law group continue to bicker as the bombings and killings continue to go on. What was quite startling was how the story was quickly suppressed.
Moving on to Afghanistan, things continue to be in a state of flux. General Petraus has begun making the rounds making the case that the July 2011 withdrawal date is not practical. One of the "happy talk" we have been fed has been the rise of the Afghan National Army. On a campaign they apparently undertook north of Kabul, they got slammed to say the least. Nato and US troops had to rush in to bail them out. There is also the story of "New Ansari" that appeared in the New York Times this past week. New Ansari is basically a money dealer that was under investigation for money laundeering by agents trained by the United States. The problem was that it got too close to associates of Karzai and he ended up putting his own people in charge. One has to wonder with such friends, who really needs enemies.
The country and the World seems to be fed with the fiction that these two campaigns are ultimately winnable. With all the treasure and blood spent, it is a very big question mark especially as America has to deal with the day after when soldiers do come home.
As the Third Year of "Outsiders" unfolds, I continue to remain hopeful. I continue to believe that we have to embrace change in its' every instance. I believe in true consesus building ideas so that we can all emerge stronger and more vibrant. There needs to be a sense of history and realization of what is at hand.
Just like many others, I was following the World Cup with great interest. As I write this, Spain has won the FIFA World Cup 2010. They were the underdogs and have confounded all skeptics--including myself who routed for the Dutch that the Spaniards defeated. I also congratulate South Africa for what it was able to achieve despite all that was stacked against it. I was glad to see Nelson Mandela sharing in the greatest moment during the final match. The question is how South Africa will be able to continue to transform itself as a result of this experience. The rift between the rich and the poor, Crime and a sense of hopelessness will continue to be the challenges faced by the South African Government.
As I was enjoying the partying in South Africa, my thought turned to the World. Life continues on. Afghanistan has a new Commander, but without a radical shift in policy. The past few days has seen more soldiers die as General Casey, the Former Iraq War Commander and current Army Chief of Staff, told the Aspen Ideas Conference of a minimum 10-year committment of war by the United States. What is clear is that this idea of a withdrawal is frankly a fiction to score political points. In the meantime, people continue to die while a very tiny minority continues to become ever more richer. What I find sickening is how the useless Karzai is held in such high esteem.
Afghanistan's problems are truly bothersome to me. I have to wonder when will the power brokers wake up to how bad things are? The problem is that there seems to be no one else to replace him. Also, what's the difference between the Good Taliban and the bad Taliban? One also has to truly ask what has been happening to the Civilian Side? How many schools have been built? How many hospitals have been built? As for the Afghan Army and Police, do we truly know how many of these guys can actually be counted on? I wonder.
Moving on to Pakistan, the war is continuing on in the tribal areas. I was horrified when I saw the reports of over 100 people being killed at a recent suicide bombing. The Pakistan Army took the flight to the Taliban and yet somehow elements within Pakistan support the Laskhar-e-Taybai and the Haqqani Network. Pakistan has been the creator and chief backer of the Taliban, yet some of the very Taliban did turn against Pakistan. While Pakistan continues the war, the Pakistani Main Street continues to suffer ever more. There is hardly an education system. The Economy is close to collapse. The Political Class continues to be ever more in the pocket of the United States while the Country continues to somehow be held together through sheer repression.
Moving on to the Americas, there is Haiti. I warned about Haiti falling off the World's radar screen--and they have. One has to really dig to see what's going on in Haiti now. Haiti is now relegated to the CNN Television newsticker. Over the past 24 hours, I have seen reports of Child Slavery and rape being on the rise. Haiti is basically a country in name only. I am quite pleased to see that the Bush Haiti Relief Fund is still operating and hope that it continues on. Here is the link: Really Long Link
There is of course the continued debate over Climate Change. The Eastern Part of the United States has been burning. Things got so bad in Iran that the Government ordered all Government offices closed for two days!!! This is as California has seen some rather peculiar weather--inclunding Rain in July!!! I regard it as a welcome development especially after two years of horrendous fires. Just the past couple of weeks has to give even the most sceptical of sceptics a moment of pause.
The week ahead will be quite busy. President Obama has been hitting the campaign trial, the Gulf of Mexico continues to die before our eyes, States continues to deal with profound budget challenges, California continues to operate without a budget and the Republicans are continuing their Jihad against big government. What is clear is that Republican are succeeding in their messaging so far. People are worried about jobs and the scenes of people on street corners holding up signs seems to be ever more commonplace.
There is one thing that is for sure: The show goes on ......
I had to break my break to report and comment on this rather explosive development. According to Al Jazeera, Karzai has held talks with Haqqani, the leader of one of the most violent Taliban factions in Afghanistan. What is even more shocking is that Pakistan's Army Chief of Staff and the head of the ISI, Pakistan's Intelligence Service supposedly accompanied him to the meeting with Karzai. This is as Mike Mullin, the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff was in Afghanistan seeing the useless Karzai to assure him of the US committment.
This morning's New York Times featured a very moving story about the 1st Mountain Divison and the predicament each soldier is facing. There is growing concerns about the fact that there is no military solution. I do not want to seem to gloat, but what I have said is that the current policy is wrong and cannot simply be sustained. The stress on the troops is simply too great and the United States will pay a heavy price for it
The Past 24 hours has been quite exciting throughout the MIddle East. In Iran, the terrorist Rigi was executed. He was leading a Sunni Splinter group in Southern Iran who had used Pakistan's Baluchestan Region to launch raids into Iran and provide safe passage for drug runners who have used the nearly lawless Southern Iran for drugs coming through Afghanistan. There are some who may say that he was one of the brave ones who took on the regime in Iran because his group was behind the assassination of a number of Senior Revolutionary Guard Commanders . What his biggest crime was to perpetuate the regime because he played into the hands of the regime.
This is exactly the kind of fight that the current regime is vying for to rally the country. They have done it repeatedly throughout the last thirty years.
Iran and the World are continuing their cat and mouse game, too
The daring attack on Bagram continues to amaze me. As I wrote before, if the biggest NATO base can be attacked, then no one and no where is safe in Afghanistan. The U.S. Defense Department has announced that 5 U.S. Officers were among the dead.
I find talks between the Taliban and Afghan Government officials in the Maldives to be a bit of a refreshing development. The talks are going on, right now. As the war rages on, at least there is talking. I have repeatedly called for in my daily "write-ups". But, both sides have talked before and have not produced results. I remain hopeful
The Sunday Talk Shows in the United States featured U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and U.S. Secretary of Defense Bob Gates. As I made the rounds of the shows, I realized why they have attained the high positions in Government as they have.
The discussions centered over the upcoming Nuclear Security Summit. 46 Nations will be participating. Hopefully some of the proceedings will be available to be previewed via the Web. What was striking in the discussions was the exceptions and cavaets that they underscored in their discussions. If and when such weapons are in fact used, the fate of humanity is sealed forever. I hope they all realize that
Karzai the Fool showed his true colors. Over the last twenty four hours, what he has done is to issue a decree bringing the Electoral Commision of Afghanistan under his direct control. He would be appointing all members going forward. He may thought that he was taking the place of his mentor: Zahir Shah. My reaction to this was this: I TOLD YOU SO!!!!
The man is a useless idiot who is being propped up by over 100,000 NATO troops. He stole the election, he is corrupt and his outright power grab shows that he has no legitimacy. This is akin to the President of the United States issuing an Executive Order appointing the members of the Federal Elections Commision bypassing the U.S. Congress. This should not be allowed under any circumstances. What I fear is that he would get away with it as NATO troops and Afghan civilians continue to die
The NATO offensive in Afghanistan to flush out the Taliban has been moving along. The "official" line has been that it is an Afghan led operations. Besides the official circle, I wonder who else really believes this fiction. I do not believe it. I also was glad to see that the Al Jazeera Correspodent on the frontlines also seemed to validate the realities at hand.
I welcome the offensive because the fight has to be taken to the Taliban. But, the problem is that the offenseive was hyped up by the useless Karzai for months. From the reports I am seeing, the Taliban were apparently ready. NATO has the technology. But, the Taliban have the knowledge of the terrain and can easily blend in with the local population. I also sense that the Taliban have also taken a page out of Sun Tzu about evading and not confronting the troops directly. There needs to be a better way
There have been bombings in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan. The bombings occured during a major religious ceremony. The idiocy of it all boggles the mind!!!
In Iraq, pilgrims were attacked at the Holy City of Karbala. Bombings caused deaths in Karachi, Pakistan's largest city. Public funerals are being planned right now. 31 people lost their lives. They were mostly women and children. After the first attack, a second attack occured at the hospital that the victims were taken too. Even worst, I am monitoring reports that a third bomb was defused by the Pakistani Authorities
I continue to be in a state of shock at the brazen attack by the Taliban at the Center of Kabul. Kabul is supposed to be the most secure city in Afghanistan. The center of town where the Afghan Presidential Palace, the Arg, is is supposed to be even more secure. The gunmen got really close and made a lot of noise. If that does scare and concern all major players in Afghanistan today, I don't know what will.
As I noted in my daily write-up, the parallels with Vietnam are so profound. The U.S. and the South Vietnamese did defeat the Viet Cong. But, the defeat came at a heavy price. Seven years later, the humiliation of the Ambassador leaving is something that should concern all policy makers right now. I have seen reports that security within Government Buildings was not compromised. But, that was not the point that the Taliban made. With a handful of suicide bombers, they were able to strike at the heart of Kabul. There is no confidence no matter what the Afghan political players insist
Right now, I am monitoring an Al Jazeera Report about a major attack by the Taliban. There have been large explosions throughout the City. According to Al Jazeera's Correspodent, some of the explosions were being held near the Presidential Palace. They have been using AK-47's and grenades. The City apparently is under lockdown as we speak. Some of the gunmen are on the roof of the Afghan National Bank Building!!!!
This is just like what the Viet Cong did in 1968. The Viet Cong were defeated. But, the stage was set for the eventual demise of South Vietnam in 1975. What I find troubling is that If The Taliban can attack at will as they have, what does that do to the Policy that the Obama Adminstration is trying to pull off. No one and no where in Afghanistan is safe. I will be anxious to see what the useless Karzai's spin on this latest daring attack by the Taliban. Richard Holbrooke noted how credible Karzai was even though the Parliament voted down more than 10 of his cabinet nominees just yesterday before he left Kabul. I wonder what he would say now
As I wrote about the carnage in Afghanistan, I nearly fell off my chair when I reviewed an analysis done by General Flynn of the US Army. This is available at Really Long Link
What General Flynn has outlined is another total disconnect in the way the intelligence agencies have operated and the absolute misunderstanding of the realities on the ground. The fact that General Flynn had the courage to speak up for the way things are right now should be another wake-up call. Although I was disappointed that the Pentagon Spokesman expressed "shock", this should be another sign that things have to change and change very quickly if there is even a slight chance of "success
Now that the euphoria of the New Year has passed, it is back to reality!!!!
I have been reviewing reports about the carnage in Afghanistan. It turns out that the suicide bomber in Afghanistan that killed seven CIA operatives was a triple agent. He was a 36 year old Doctor who was apparently picked up in Jordan, was supposedly turned to target the Al Qaeda Number 2. According to Richard Engel of NBC News a Jordanian Agent was also killed who happened to be a distant relative of the King of Jordan. My reaction to this report was simply this: OMG
At 5:00 PM EST U.S. today, Barack Obama will tell the world what he has decided to do on Afghanistan. I eagerly await his decision. But, the bits and pieces I have heard concerns me a great deal.
First of all, I understand that part of the strategy is to give up the rural areas to focus on the Cities. The problem is that Afghanistan is primarily still a rural country. Afghanistan is not Kabul. The idea of somehow 30,000 additional troops being deployed over a 2 year period seems to be frankly a drop in the bucket. Although the President has said that he intends to finish the job, the timeline is slated to go through 2011. The biggest mistake is to sustain the existing non-government that is a collection of self-serving thugs and killers. That's my biggest problem with this. Key world leaders have been briefed already
As I write this, President Obama had concluded his 9th War Council meeting on option regaring Afghanistan. The advocates for a "surge" want it now. The conservatives have been on a warpath accusing the President of "dithering" and "being weak". Yet, these same conservatives seem to forget Vietnam and the lessons of Vietnam.
Over the week-end, Bill Moyers remembered President Johnson's dilema over Vietnam. There are many who will dismiss Bill Moyers as a liberal, left-leaning angry fellow. Yet, this one hour retrospective is so devastating in the parallels with what President Obama faces in Afghanistan today. President Johnson asked the right questions. He just made the call and made it to the detriment of the country. Click Here: Really Long Link retrieved 11/23/2009. How can America make a committment when there is no government. Although Karzai has been making noises, Karzai will be hung if NATO and the US moved out tomorrow
Afghanistan has just come out with an annoucement that it will work to increase the military force to 240,000 troops. There is an estimate that each Afghan Army Troop will cost about 12,000 dollars, yet each American Troop will cost around 1,000,000 Dollars. Now, with all such staggering figure, the question that has to be asked is this: What has happened to all the money that has been sent to Afghanistan? Why is the country in such dire straits?
When Karzai took the oath, he promised action. He wants to reconcile with the Taliban. He also has promised to fight corruption. But, the reality on Main Street is different. Talk is cheap. Despite the apparent embrace by the international community, the question has to be asked: Where has Karzai been for the past 7 years? Why did he not make sure that The Taliban did not rear their ugly head? How can he emerge from his reputation as the "Deputy Mayor of Kabul" and really start to assert his authority? How can the cancer of corruption be eradicated from a society that knows no other way to do business? How can the people be given hope when they continue to be in the front lines and suffer the casualties
The UN has just announced that it is evacuating 900 staff members from Afghanistan, citing security concerns. To me, this is another indicement of the useless Karzai who leads one of the most corrupt regimes in the world today. As I have written here and in OV's sister sites, Karzai is part of the problem. Dr. Abdullah's declaration regarding the election of Karzai being illegitmate is a step in the right direction. But, political instability is bound to continue and the Taliban will drive a mack truck through it. It will make matters ever more complicated.
If Karzai is such a great guy, then how come the UN has decided to leave? What does Karzai have to say to that
During my morning review on Thursday, I was surprised at the scenes of President Obama attending the dignifed transfer of the fallen at Dover Air Force in Delaware:
Earlier today, 6 Italian Soldiers lost their lives when a Taliban Suicide bomber rammed a vehicle into an Italian Military Convoy near the US Embassy in Kabul. This is right in the heart of the capital. This goes on as the uncertainty over the Afghan elections continues. There is one hopeful sign that I think must be explored. The Italian Prime Minister has come out noting that NATO has to leave Afghanistan. I find this signifcant because he has been on of the stalwarts of support for this campaign
Afghanistan's election is still up in the air. Karzai the fool is ahead of his main challenger, Dr. Abdullah The EU monitors, though, thankfully have had the courage to tell the world that over a million votes that Karzai the fool has gotten are dubious at best. Karzai and his flacks have come out blasting the UN. The world seems to realize that the truth somehow lies in between.
Now, as this uncertainty continues, I have seem some ideas floating around about Abdullah and Karzai entering into some sort of a coalition. I hope Abdullah does not accept it, because Karzai is the problem. Karzai's authority only extends to his own palace only. He can't even control Kabul, let alone the country. I was at least gratified to see that President Obama seems to have shut down the idea of more troops for Afghanistan
As I write this, reports are coming in that 90 people have died as a result of a NATO bombing in Northern Afghanistan. NATO went after a fuel convoy that was stolen by the Taliban. This comes on top of another incident that saw the death of a key Afghan Intelligence Official a few days ago that I commented on in an earlier write-up.
The question is this: Why is this significant? It is signifcant on several fronts. For one thing, the battle for the hearts and minds that is now the focus of US and NATO strategy is not working. I find Admiral Mullen's Stark acknowledgement that "Time is not on our side" especially chilling
This is the first formal "Chronicle" I have launched on Afghanistan. I have periodically written about Afghanistan here and in OV's sister sites, Kitten Politics & Smooth Political. With how things have evolved, this will be the first in a series of chronicles to reflect upon the tragedy that his Afghanistan.
I have just reviewed a report from the BBC noting an explosive meeting between Ambassador Holbrooke and Hamid Karzai. It is bad enough that only 30% of the people voted. The Taliban already have won because they were able to scare the people into not voting. That's the reality and it cannot be changed
It has been a very busy week-end. There is of course Burma and the fact that Jim Webb got to see the Pro-Democracy Leader and the Chief Thug who runs Burma today. There is the burning debate over healthcare that dominated the airwaves over the week-end on U.S Sunday Talk Show Circuit. There was of course Afghanistan and the upcoming election. And last, but no tleast, there is of course Iran.
The news from Afghanistan is not pretty. A day does not pass without a death or an injury being reported. There is of course the showcase video being shown of the captured US Army Soldier being held by the Taleban.
There is another bigger picture that makes the upcoming election even more impossible to predict. According to the statistics I have reviewed from the Afghan Ministry of the Interior, there are 28,000 polling stations in the country. This is a country that is not the most developed in the world. According to the Afghan Interior Ministry's own data, 124 out of the 364 Districts in the country are unsafe. Major candidates are not venturing out of the major cities. With this lousy picture, how a credible election can be held is something I am trying to figure out. It will be quite a challenge to say the least
President Obama's Nominee for the Afghanistan Commander was before the US Senate. He told the Senate about the long road ahead. He also told the Senate that the war is "winnable". But before there is light at the end of the tunnel, such scenes will become ever more
Zardari and Karzai, the Laurel and Hardy of South Asia, have spoken on the predicament faced by their countries. Zardari was quite forceful and eloquent in laying out the stark choices. He is asking for more help:
The useless Karzai and the playboy Zardari have seen President Obama. I am sure that the President read the riot act to both of them. When I saw the President's statement, everyone was happy and gong-ho. I am still trying to understand why the United States supports such men who have been nothing but a disaster for their countries
I caught the program, Empire, that Al Jazeera's Marwan Bishara hosts talking about U.S. Foreign Policy and the future. The analysis done is chilling. The session he hosted had Seymour Hersch, Lakhmar Brahimi and Tariq Ali. Tariq Ali and Seymour Hersch are considered "lefties" by the Conservative Community. But, sometimes lefites have words of wisdom that should be listened to.
In Iraq, there is some consesus that there is reasonable security. Hannity, in his radio interview on Thursday with Governor Rendell of Pennsylvania, said that the United States won the Iraq war. My reaction was, really? How? The fact is that Suicide bombers are back in fashion as America begins to withdraw. If the United States did in fact win, then why do we still have 150,000 troops in that country? Why are people dying
I have continued to express reservations about Afghanistan and have profoundly concerned about the way ahead. I think Pepe Escobar's Report is as insightful as it gets:
I have been making the rounds of the Sunday Talk Shows. NBC and ABC had Tim Geitner on and CBS' Face the Nation had the President on as well: (available at http://www.cbsnews.com).
As I listened to the Face The Nation Interview, I was glad that Bob Schieffer brought up Mexico. I have regarded Mexico as the soft underbelly that is indeed a major threat to the security of the United States. I did also find Meet the Press quite insightful in explaining in layman's terms how the plan is supposed to work. As I listened to all the shows, the central message I heard was that the Obama Adminstration views the strategies on both the economy and Afghanistan was on track. Time will only tell
The President Arrives For His First Day....A Busy One too!!!
The first day of the Obama Adminstration has begun. The President began his day by attending the National Prayer Service and got down to work. I saw him when he met with the White House and signed off on the new Ethics Rules. He has also been meeting with the Economics and National Security Teams. They have hit the ground running. Unfortunately, the Senate has not done the job by confirming the nominees. At least three key members are yet to be confirmed. A new Era has truly begun
Barack Hussein Obama is now the 44th President of the United States. Throughout my lifetime, I have had the privilege to read on the traditions and was finally able to be a true witness to this momentous transfer of power due to the power of technology. I have continued to marvel at how someone with so much power gives it up so willingly because the people are truly sovereign in America. This was quite moving when the President and the First Lady escorted Former Mr. and Mrs. Bush
As the bombing and the rocket firing was continuing, Tipzi Livni got U.S. guarantees on a prevention of Hamas rearming. Qatar and Mauritania cut their Israeli ties. There are reports coming through stating that Israel is nearing the "end game". I am still trying to understand what the "end game" is.
As the talking is going on, I continue to get reports on the grim statistics. So far, almost 1200 people are dead and over 5,000 have been wounded. I just saw a twitter update from Al Jazeera'z Zeina Awad noting, "...one of the biggest air strikes to date". Gaza's infrastructure has totally collapsed. I saw reports on two Israeli Human Rights groups petitoning the Israeli Supreme Court to compel the Army to begin allowing humanitarian aid to the civilans. There is of course a report on another UN school again being hit with injuries
Mike Pouraryan
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