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How scary will it get? I just don't know.....
The debate on what to do about how to jumpstart the US Economy rages on. I personally have received appeals from both Senator McCain's new CountryFirst PAC and President Obama's Organizing for America Organization. The roundtable held earlier between four leading lights of the U.S. Congress on NBC's Meet the Press underscores this divide.
As the debate continues, teachers, fire fighters and cops are on the chopping block. States are in dire straits. California continues to operate without a budget.
I briefly listened to John Ensign, the Senator from Nevada, talking about the fact that spending was way out of control. He talked about the fact that cops and teachers were not being laid off. I don't think he understands the reality on the ground at least in California. The collapse in housing has wrecked disaster on the budgets of local governments. I have written, for instance, on the layoffs announced by Orange County California in December 2008. The urgent need to act now is ever more critical.
As the debate continues, the man on the street suffers. Everyone is afraid. You can sense it somehow. I met Counsel on some corporate matters. Counsel was discussing how things are tough out there. Opposing Counsel noted that he had quite a bit of Probate Business that would keep him afloat for a while. The other counsel had taken on a new line of work to do loan modifications. I commented that no one seemed to be immune. I was promptly corrected by one of the Attorneys--and rightly so I might add. The only two people that seem to be making a killing are bankrupcy Attorneys and Liquidators.
As we go through this massive restructring, there are many personal stories. I talk to people all the time to see how they are doing and what they are doing. One of the many faces is a guy by the name of Joel. I have retained him for a number of years to provide services for my company's properties. He has a wife and two small children. He bought a house during the house boom. He worked hard to expand his business. He does gardening and house repairs. His wife provides cleaning services for homes Now that the housing bubble has burst, he can't pay his mortgage. He tried to work with the bank on loan modification. His wife's clients have cut back because they can't afford things anymore. Yet, as I met with him on Friday, he continued to be optimistic.
I view helping such ordinary faces should be the focus. As I listened to the NBC roundtable, I took comfort in the agreement that all parties have understood the urgency of making the move now. This was a sampling of the debate:
Everyone noted that the package will pass. The key message is that the man on the street needs help. The help is needed now. I eagerly await the passage and working on writing about the emergence of the recovery.
The world is right now fascinated with Davos. The rich, the famous and the powerful are all there in paradise talking about the world and all the problems. There is enough being said by all pundits which will speak for itself on Davos. But, two key things occured which I wanted to note:
1) Turkey's Prime Minister Edrogan stormed out of a discussion with Shimon Peres during discusisons on Gaza. Edrogan was given a minute by David Ignathius of the Washington Post to rebute a lengthy comment by Shimon Peres. I think the gesture by Mr. Edrogan must be taken seriously by Israel. It shows the frustration with Israel and the fact that as Amr Mousa said, Israel "does not listen". I was quite disappointed by David Ignathius when he did not grant equal time during the discussions. It seems to me that Dinner could have waited.
2) The Prime Ministers of China and Russia spoke at Davos, blasting the West. I think both men had excellent points. But, both men have a lot of problems of their own and their crediblity is suspect at best. I think Wen Jinbao has been at the forefront of changing China. I think his efforts during the earthquake surprised me. But, the Chinese are undergoing changes that the Government cannot truly contend with and blasting the West is not going to solve it. As for Russia, Tsar Putin can say whatever he wants. The fact is that he is a dictator in a 1000-Dollar Suit speaking about responsbility when his country has profound challenges.
China and Russia have to be watched. They are powerful, they are emergent and they should not be discounted. But, lecturing the rest of the world is disingenious at best. The Davos Alternative, though, also has convened. I am quite interested to see what it achieves. Everyone is still talking, talking and talking. But there is no action at all.
Mike Pouraryan
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