Mike Pouraryan
The Continued Econmic Winter of Our Lives
April 5th 2009 03:48
:
Is there any hope?
The numbers that came out on Friday on the U.S. Unemployment numbers were shocking. It went up "officially" to 8.25%. But, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics Report, it did not include, "...About 2.1 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in March, 754,000 more than a year earlier. These individ-
uals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 685,000 discouraged workers in March, up by 284,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities."
(Source: Really]Really Long Link retrieved April 4, 2009).
The report from the U.S. Department of Labor is quite profound because it says in no uncertain terms that the real unemployment rate is signifciantly underreported. The actual real unemployment rate is around 14.8% nationally--some 23,000,000 Workers in the United States alone. Furthermore, There is of course the fact that there were folks who were ready to take on full time employment, but ended up taking up part time employment. According to the reports I have reviewed, the nominal rate is expected to rise up to 10% nationally before it starts to ebb off. In states such as California, it is bound to get worst.
Just Friday, FedEx annouced job cuts of 1,000 because of the earnings shortfall. I was also shocked at the report of over 30,000,000 (30 Million) people being on Food Stamps. That's almost 1 in 30 Americans. For a country that is the bread basket of the world, this is a figure that in my view is shameful!!!
The budget blueprint that the U.S. Congress passed on Friday is a budget that is staggering in numbers. The Republicans have attacked it as spending and borrowing too much. Although I'll be continuing to assess the budget blueprint and the subsequent debate, one thing has to be noted that this blueprint includes the costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Furthermore, it includes other off-budget items which were not included in the Budget of the Bush Years. With such immense problems on all fronts, there is no question that the challenges are huge. Although the Obama Adminstration assures the Country and the World that the budget blueprint is the foundation for economic recovery, it does not seem to factor in the almost Twelve Trillion Dollars in Guarantees that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury have committed as part of their quest to "cleanse" the Financial System.
The markets seemed to have a good day last week after the G20 came out with its' comminque, where it committed to increasing the IMF funding by One Trillion (one Trillion Dollars). I agree with Martin Wolfe's Admonition when he noted that, ".....Finding a longer-term cure for chronic global excess supply lies ahead." (Source: http://www.ft.com, retrieved April 4, 2009). Not withstanding the apparentl "success" at the G20, the Chinese will not be silent as they push for a move away from the Dollar as the World's reserve currency. They have a lot of pull because they own over a Trillion Dollars worth of U.S. Treasury Debt and are concerned.
On the domestic front, I have been assessing the monies from the Economic Stimulus is starting to flow to the States. I am anxious to see the immediate impact. I am especially keen to see how the $ 11 Billion slated for California is going to be allocated to the 1000 School Districts who are facing severe budgetary constraints, have sent out layoff notices and will be going through further cutbacks. I am also keen to see that the promised benefits for so-called "shovel-ready" projects and the windfall it is to provide. The Recovery.Gov website is reporting on monies continually being released. It is the impact that would be the driving force.
The struggle continues.......
uals wanted and were available for work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 685,000 discouraged workers in March, up by 284,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.4 million persons marginally attached to the labor force in March had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities."
The report from the U.S. Department of Labor is quite profound because it says in no uncertain terms that the real unemployment rate is signifciantly underreported. The actual real unemployment rate is around 14.8% nationally--some 23,000,000 Workers in the United States alone. Furthermore, There is of course the fact that there were folks who were ready to take on full time employment, but ended up taking up part time employment. According to the reports I have reviewed, the nominal rate is expected to rise up to 10% nationally before it starts to ebb off. In states such as California, it is bound to get worst.
The budget blueprint that the U.S. Congress passed on Friday is a budget that is staggering in numbers. The Republicans have attacked it as spending and borrowing too much. Although I'll be continuing to assess the budget blueprint and the subsequent debate, one thing has to be noted that this blueprint includes the costs of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Furthermore, it includes other off-budget items which were not included in the Budget of the Bush Years. With such immense problems on all fronts, there is no question that the challenges are huge. Although the Obama Adminstration assures the Country and the World that the budget blueprint is the foundation for economic recovery, it does not seem to factor in the almost Twelve Trillion Dollars in Guarantees that the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Treasury have committed as part of their quest to "cleanse" the Financial System.
The markets seemed to have a good day last week after the G20 came out with its' comminque, where it committed to increasing the IMF funding by One Trillion (one Trillion Dollars). I agree with Martin Wolfe's Admonition when he noted that, ".....Finding a longer-term cure for chronic global excess supply lies ahead." (Source: http://www.ft.com, retrieved April 4, 2009). Not withstanding the apparentl "success" at the G20, the Chinese will not be silent as they push for a move away from the Dollar as the World's reserve currency. They have a lot of pull because they own over a Trillion Dollars worth of U.S. Treasury Debt and are concerned.
On the domestic front, I have been assessing the monies from the Economic Stimulus is starting to flow to the States. I am anxious to see the immediate impact. I am especially keen to see how the $ 11 Billion slated for California is going to be allocated to the 1000 School Districts who are facing severe budgetary constraints, have sent out layoff notices and will be going through further cutbacks. I am also keen to see that the promised benefits for so-called "shovel-ready" projects and the windfall it is to provide. The Recovery.Gov website is reporting on monies continually being released. It is the impact that would be the driving force.
The struggle continues.......
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